考虑风险偏好的航班延误旅客行为选择模型  

Passenger Behavior Choice Model Considering Risk Preference Under Flight Delay

作　　者：江红[1] 任新惠[1] JIANG Hong;REN Xinhui(College of Economics and Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《综合运输》2019年第11期85-89,104,共6页China Transportation Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U1433111);中央高校基本科研业务费中国民航大学项目(3122018D042)

摘　　要：目前,航班延误在我国还很普遍。研究航班延误后旅客行为选择倾向,对提升航班延误后服务补救具有一定的实际意义。本文利用前景理论,构建了航班延误后旅客行为选择模型,在基于航班延误规模、旅客属性确定的动态参照点的基础上,进行风险偏好系数的修正,并以北京-上海航线大规模延误为研究背景,分别计算风险偏好系数相同及不同两种情况下旅客选择行为的前景值,确定不同延误情形下旅客的最优行为选择。通过调查问卷及实地调查两种方式得到航班延误后旅客的实际选择行为,并与理论计算结果进行对比分析。结果表明,前景理论能够较好的解释旅客的选择行为。同时,在充分考虑旅客风险偏好的基础上,理论模型与实际行为的契合度更高。At present,flight delay is still common in China.Studying the tendency of passenger behavior after flight delay has certain practical significance for flight delay service remedies.The paper uses prospect theory to construct a passenger behavior choice model after flight delay.Basing on the dynamic reference points determined by the flight delay scale and passenger attributes,the risk preference coefficient is corrected.Then,taking the large-scale delay of the Beijing-Shanghai route as the research background,the prospect value of the passenger’s choice behavior is calculated in the case of whether the risk preference coefficient is same or different,and the optimal behavior in each case under different delay conditions are determined.The actual selection behavior of the passenger after the flight delay is obtained through questionnaires and field survey,and compared with the theoretical calculation results.The results show that the prospect theory can better explain the passenger’s choice behavior.At the same time,based on the full consideration of passenger risk appetite,the theoretical model has a higher degree of fit with actual behavior.

关 键 词：航空运输 航班延误 前景理论 行为选择模型 风险偏好系数 

分 类 号：F562.6[经济管理—产业经济]