注意力配置、互联网搜索与国际贸易  

Attention Allocation, Internet Search and International Trade

作　　者：施炳展[1] 金祥义 SHI Bingzhan;JIN Xiangyi(Institution of International Economics,School of Economics,Nankai University,Multinational Corporation Research Center,Nankai University,Chinese Characteristic Socialist Economic Construction Cooperative Innovation Center)

机构地区：[1]南开大学国际经济研究所、南开大学跨国公司研究中心、中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心,300071

出　　处：《经济研究》2019年第11期71-86,共16页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71773056,71973071,71873071);中央高校基本科研经费项目(63192303);教育部社科基地重大项目(19JJD790003,19JJD790004)的资助

摘　　要：经济主体的有限注意力是一种稀缺资源,注意力通过降低信源熵值、减少不确定性影响经济行为。开放条件下,注意力的国家间配置会影响一国贸易规模及其空间分布。本文结合不确定性理论、信息论和注意力理论进行论证,认为注意力配置通过信息获取、降低不确定性来影响国际贸易。实证方面,本文利用2006—2016年中国对世界各国的百度搜索指数作为注意力配置的代理变量,采用各国自然文化遗产数量作为互联网搜索指数的工具变量,并结合同期中国双边六分位贸易数据进行实证检验。研究发现,注意力配置会影响贸易规模、贸易结构和贸易模式;注意力配置主要通过降低不确定性渠道促进国际贸易;在考虑了零贸易、其他信息指标、内生性因素后结论依然显著。本文结论意味着,“开放发展”不仅包括有形市场开放(商品市场、服务市场和要素市场等),还应包括经济主体的注意力开放,表明经济主体的国际化视野也是影响一国开放绩效的重要变量。Forty years after China's reform and opening up in 1978,its export trade has experienced miraculous success,which has become an important research topic.In addition,understanding China's export growth mechanism is important for China's future export growth,especially because of slower export growth and uncertainty in the global economy.Whereas much previous research has focused on traditional perspectives,such as production factors,technology,markets,and institutions,to explain the miracle of China's export growth,this paper attempts to explain this miracle from the perspective of attention allocation,applying behavioral economics to China's foreign trade growth and contributing to marginal theories.We find that the attention allocation of Chinese economic entities can affect the geographical structure of Chinese exports,thereby enhancing their international horizons.This international allocation of attention may be an important factor in the future growth of Chinese exports.In the theoretical part,we synthesize allocation attention theory,uncertainty theory,and information theory to construct a theoretical mechanism.First,economic entities face many types of uncertainty when making optimal decisions,including demand uncertainty,supply uncertainty,and policy uncertainty,ultimately affecting their analysis process and their decisions.Second,based on information theory,information is essentially a resource that can reduce the level of uncertainty.Therefore,the amount of information can be measured by the degree of reduction of the level of uncertainty.Specifically,information entropy is the measure of the level of uncertainty of an information source.Economic entities can reduce information entropy by receiving signals sent by the information source.Therefore,the amount of information can be measured by the reduction of information entropy.However,economic entities must pay to receive information,which may explain their limited attention.Due to this scarce and limited attention,the allocation of attention can affec

关 键 词：不确定性 注意力配置 互联网搜索 国际贸易 自然文化遗产 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]