胬肉术后复发危险因素Logistic回归分析及复发概率风险预测模型的构建  

Logistic Regression Analysis of Risk Factors and Establishment of Prediction Model for Relapse after Pterygium Excision

作　　者：刘鹏里 LIU Pengli(The Seventh Hospital of Fuzhou,Fuzhou 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]福州市第七医院

出　　处：《中国医学创新》2019年第31期129-132,共4页Medical Innovation of China

摘　　要：目的:探讨翼状胬肉切除术后胬肉复发的危险因素并构建复发概率风险预测模型。方法:对翼状胬肉切除联合角膜缘干细胞移植术治疗的72例翼状胬肉患者的临床资料进行回顾性分析,比较未复发组与复发组相关指标的差异,然后对复发可能的相关危险因素进行Logistic回归分析。结果:通过Logistic回归分析:术后CAD(转换)、术后3个月BUT差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),术后CAD(转换)每增加一单位(25°),复发的风险增加2.6倍,术后BUT每增加1秒,复发的风险降低88.6%。根据回归结果建立胬肉复发概率风险预测模型:P=EXP(16.997+0.979*X1-2.167*X2)/[1+EXP(16.997+0.979*X1-2.167*X2)],ROC曲线AUC=0.929,最佳截断点为0.297。结论:术后散光的增加、术后泪膜破裂时间的缩短为翼状胬肉术后复发的危险因素之一,构建的胬肉复发概率风险预测模型对胬肉复发具有一定的预警作用。Objective:To investigate the risk factors and establishment of prediction model for relapse after pterygium excision.Method:The clinical data of 72 patients with pterygium after operation of pterygium combined with corneal limbal stem cell transplantation was collected through reviewing analysis and observed the differences of related indicators which were divided into healing group and relapse group.Logistics regression analysis were used to investigate the risk factors asscoiated with recurrence after pterygium excision.Result:Logistic regression analysis showed that postoperative astigmatism(conversion)and postoperative tearfilm break-up time after 3 months were statistically significant between two groups(P<0.05).Postoperative astigmatism(conversion)every increased 1 unit(25°),the risk of recurrence of pterygium would increase 2.6 times,and postoperative tearfilm break-up time every increased 1 second,the risk of recurrence of pterygium could reduce to 88.6%.The prediction model for relapse was as the following:P=EXP(16.997+0.979*X1-2.167*X2)/[1+EXP(16.997+0.979*X1-2.167*X2)].The area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.929,the best cut-off point was 0.297.Conclusion:The risk factors for relapse after pterygium excision are postoperative astigmatism and postoperative tear film break-up time.The prediction model for relapse after pterygium excision has early warning function.

关 键 词：胬肉复发 危险因素 回归分析 复发预测模型构建 

分 类 号：R[医药卫生]