“公共均衡与非均衡”冲突新理论  

A New Conflict Theory of Public Equilibrium and Non-Equilibrium

作　　者：杨立华[1,2] 陈一帆[3] 周志忍[1] Yang Lihua;Chen Yifan;Zhou Zhiren

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871 [2]北京大学国家治理研究院,北京100871 [3]北京航空航天大学公共管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2019年第11期104-126,206,207,共25页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“环境污染群体性事件及其处置机制研究”(14ZDB143);国家社会科学基金重大专项“提高社会治理社会化、法治化、智能化、专业化水平研究:基于指标体系构建和绩效评估的问题诊断和对策分析”(18VZL001)阶段性成果

摘　　要：冲突是政治学、公共管理学、社会学和经济学等共同研究的中心课题,但既有的经典理论主要诞生在西方,不仅缺乏本土性,也未能提供理解中国群体冲突的系统框架。在重新梳理经典群体冲突理论的基础上,或可提出基于"控制-反抗"逻辑的"公共均衡与非均衡"新理论,并通过大规模问卷调查验证该理论。新理论阐述了群体冲突产生和解决的基本逻辑,可同时解释冲突发生和不发生,又能用统一的公式描述冲突动态演变的全过程,为理解和解决中国群体冲突提供了新框架。新理论认为群体冲突是不同事件主体在旧公共均衡被打破的情况下重构新公共均衡的过程。公共相对利益满足感、公共维持或合作意愿、社会总约束力、公共可使用反抗力、公共反抗机会、社会总刺激六个核心变量共同决定了公共均衡值的大小和社会的和平或冲突状态。当公共均衡值大于1,社会整体和平或冲突基本解决;小于1,社会出现冲突;等于1,处于冲突边缘;冲突发生、演进与解决是六个变量共同作用的结果。因此构建可包容公共均衡调整的强弹性社会应是我国当前社会转型的目标,新理论为进一步推动我国群体冲突理论的发展和实证研究奠定了基础。Conflict is a central topic common to research in political science,public administration,sociology and economics.However,existing classical conflict theory tends to emanate from the West;it not only lacks an indigenous Chinese character,but also fails to provide a systematic framework for understanding group conflicts in China.The reordering of classical group conflict theory enables us to propose a new theory of "public equilibrium and non-equilibrium "based on the logic of "control/resistance," and to verify it through a large-scale survey.The new theory expounds the basic logic of the generation and resolution of group conflict;it can simultaneously explain the occurrence and non-occurrence of conflict and can also describe the whole process of the dynamic evolution of conflict through a unified formula,thus providing a new framework for understanding and resolving group conflicts in China.The new theory holds that group conflict is a process whereby different actors in an event reconstruct a new public equilibrium in circumstances where the old public equilibrium has broken down.Six core variables-relative satisfaction of public interest;public maintenance or readiness to cooperate;total social constraints;available public resistance;opportunities for public resistance;and total social stimulus-determine the size of the public equilibrium value and whether society is in a state of peace or conflict.When the public equilibrium value is greater than 1,overall social peace or conflict is basically resolved;if it is less than 1,conflict appears in society;and when it is equal to 1,it is on the edge of conflict.The occurrence,evolution and resolution of conflict is the result of the joint action of the six variables.Therefore,the current social transformation should aim to construct a highly flexible society,one that can accommodate the adjustment of public equilibrium. This new theory lays a foundation for further promoting the development of and empirical research on group conflict theory in China.

关 键 词：冲突 社会冲突 公共均衡 环境污染 

分 类 号：G63[文化科学—教育学]