基于GM(1,1)模型的中国体育产业增加值和总规模的预测  

Application of the Grey Prediction Model GM(1,1) on the Chinese Sports Industry’s Development Forecast

作　　者：林宇 周慧 胡倩[1] LIN Yu;ZHOU Hui;HU Qian(College of Basic Medicine,Jining Medical University,Jining,Shandong 276826,China;College of Physical Education,Shandong University,Jinan,Shandong 250061,China;Department of Physical Education,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao,Shandong 276826,China)

机构地区：[1]济宁医学院基础医学院,山东济宁272067 [2]山东大学体育学院,山东济南250061 [3]曲阜师范大学日照校区体育教学部,山东日照276826

出　　处：《经济数学》2019年第4期106-110,共5页Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：2018年度教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(18YJA890013);山东省社科规划一般项目(16CTYJ17,14CTYJ08);2018年山东省软科学一般项目(2018RKB14032)

摘　　要：以中国2006-2017年的体育产业总规模和增加值数据为基础,采用GM(1,1)模型,预测我国体育产业未来的发展趋势.结果显示,中国体育产业总规模和体育产业增加值预测模型的平均相对误差分别为0.28%和2.64%,后验差比值分别为0.079和0.095,小概率误差均为1,表明预测模型的精度较优,预测结果可信可靠.从预测结果来看,我国体育产业的发展将呈现出蓬勃发展之势.Based on the data of the Chinese sports industry from 2006 to 2017,and the grey prediction model GM(1,1)is applied to calculate the future development trend of the Chinese sports industry.The results show that the average relative errors are 0.28%and 2.64%respectively,the posterior error ratios are 0.079 and 0.095 respectively,and all the small probability errors are 1.The precision of the prediction model is super and the forecast results are credible and reliable.The results show that the Chinese sports industry will be a booming industry.

关 键 词：数理经济学 灰色预测 GM(1 1)模型 体育产业 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]