基于优化的灰色-权马尔科夫模型的径流量预测  

Improved Grey-weighted Markov Model in Annual Runoff Prediction

作　　者：王筱 周维博[1,2] WANG Xiao;ZHOU Wei-bo(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecology in Arid Areas of Ministry of Education,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学环境科学与工程学院,陕西西安710054 [2]长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2019年第22期179-186,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：平原水库(昆明池)对区域地下水环境的影响研究

摘　　要：采用滑动平均法处理1990-2013年沣河秦渡镇水文站径流量数据序列,建立灰色模型GM(1,1)和权马尔科夫链(WMCP)模型组合预测模型,并利用模糊集理论的级别特征值解决了预测结果为区间状态的问题,将模型进行了优化.结果表明,相较于传统的灰色-马尔科夫模型,在结合了WMCP之后的优化模型预测结果与实测资料比较吻合,模型预报精度有所提高.The sliding average method is used to optimize the Fenghe runoff data series from 1990-2013,the combination forecasting model of the grey model GM(1,1)and weighted Markov chain(WMCP)model is established,and the level characteristic value of the fuzzy set theory is used to solve the problem that the prediction result is interval state,the model is optimized.The results show that compared with the traditional Gray-Markov model,the prediction results of the optimized model after combining WMCP are basically consistent with the measured data,and the prediction accuracy of the model is improved.

关 键 词：GM(1 1) WMCP 级别特征值 径流量预测 沣河 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]