降雨量突变对水库汛期分期及调度影响研究  

Study on the Influence of Sudden Rainfall Change on Flood Season Staging and Reservoir Operation

作　　者：贾振兴 JIA Zhenxing(Shanxi Institute of Water Resources,Taiyuan 030001,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省水资源研究所

出　　处：《水力发电》2019年第12期17-20,100,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41372247);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20131402110008)

摘　　要：采用扫描式滑动t与CSD法检测到1969年~2015年张家庄水库降水量p突变年为1995年。以突变年为分界点,应用判别模式法对张家庄水库进行汛期分期,以均方差评价指标S为标准对模型分期结果进行评价,并进行水库调度研究。研究表明,降雨量突变对汛期分期结果有一定影响,由模型所得降雨量变年后较整个时间序列得到的主汛期短8 d,分期结果更可靠,在水库调度过程中可有效改善水库下游水资源利用条件,缓解水库供水压力。The scanning sliding t and the CSD method are used to detect the precipitation data of Zhangjiazhuang Reservoir between 1969 to 2015,and finds that the precipitation(p)mutation year of Zhangjiazhuang Reservoir is 1995.Taking the mutation year as the separation point,the discriminant model method is used to stage the flood season of Zhangjiazhuang Reservoir,and the mean square error evaluation index S is taken as the standard to evaluate the results of flood season staging.The reservoir operation is also studied.The study shows that the mutation of precipitation has a certain impact on the results of flood season staging.The main flood season obtained by the model after the abrupt change of precipitation is 8 d shorter than that obtained by the whole time series.The application of flood season staging results in the dispatching process of reservoir operation will effectively improve the water resources utilization conditions of the downstream area of reservoir and alleviate the pressure on water supply of reservoir.

关 键 词：汛期分期 水库调度 降水量 突变 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]