新疆兵团垦区2010-2018年流行性腮腺炎流行特征分析与趋势预测  

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of mumps in Xinjiang reclamation of corps from 2010 to 2018

作　　者：凯丽比努尔·吾买尔 陈梦馨[2] 马龙[1] 张学良[3] 邹沛霖 Kalibinuer Wumaier;CHEN Mengxin;MA Long;ZHANG Xueliang;ZOU Peilin(College of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830011,China;Xinjiang Productionand Construction Corps Disease Prevention And Control Center,Urumqi 830001,China;College of Medical Engineering and Technology,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830011,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]新疆生产建设兵团疾病预防控制中心,乌鲁木齐830001 [3]新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《新疆医科大学学报》2019年第12期1635-1639,共5页Journal of Xinjiang Medical University

基　　金：新疆科技厅重大专项子课题(2017A03006-1)

摘　　要：目的了解新疆兵团垦区流行性腮腺炎的流行特征,建立模型并预测发病趋势,为制定流行性腮腺炎的防控措施提供科学依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法分析新疆兵团垦区流行性腮腺炎的监测数据,建立求和自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA),并预测疾病的发病趋势。结果2010-2018年新疆兵团垦区累计报告流行性腮腺炎病例为6375例,年平均报告发病率为26.74/100000;发病率男性高于女性;4~15岁学生群体占病例总数的80.71%,5~10岁年龄组儿童比例较大;发病高峰为5-6月和12月-次年1月;第八师和第十三师年均发病率较高。建立时间序列模型,即ARIMA(2,1,2)(0,1,1)12模型可以很好地拟合实际数据,模型预测新疆兵团垦区2019年全年发病数可能为224例。结论通过构建求和自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测新疆兵团垦区流行性腮腺炎的发病趋势是可行的,应加强兵团各师入托和入学儿童体检工作,加强重点人群宣教,提高疫苗的接种率,针对高发地区及高发季节进一步加强流行性腮腺炎监测及防治工作。ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in the Xinjiang corps area,and to establish a model to predict the incidence trend,in order to provide evidence for the prevention and control of mumps.MethodsAnalysis of the data of epidemic mumps in Xinjiang Corps was performed by describing epidemiological methods,and the autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)was used to predict the incidence of mumps in 2019.ResultsA total of 6375 mumps cases were reported in Xinjiang corps from 2010-2018,with an average annual incidence rate being 26.74/100000;the ratio of males and females was 1.26∶1;those aged of 4-15 years accounted for 80.71%of the total cases,especially in the 5 years old group;and most cases concentrated from May to June and December to January;The eighth and thirteenth divisions have a higher annual incidence rate,establishing a time series model,the ARIMA(2,1,2)(0,1,1)12 model can fit the actual data well,it was predicted that there may be 224 new cases of mumps in Xinjiang corps in the whole year of 2019.ConclutionIt is feasible to predict the epidemic trend of mumps in Xinjiang corps by building ARIMA model.It is necessary to strengthen the physical examination of children enrolled,and to strengthen the education of key populations,increasing the vaccination rate of vaccines,and thereby strengthening the surveillance and prevention of mumps in high-incidence areas and high-incidence seasons.

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 流行特征 发病趋势 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：R512.1[医药卫生—内科学]