合杭宁精细化管理熵评价及GM(1,1)预测  

He-Hang-Ning Refined Management Entropy Evaluation and GM (1,1) Prediction

作　　者：许莹 陈莉 XU Ying;CHEN Li(College of Economics and Management,Anhui Janzhu University,Hefei 230000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《淮阴工学院学报》2019年第5期75-81,共7页Journal of Huaiyin Institute of Technology

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题(17JZD001)

摘　　要：以合肥、南京、杭州为评价单元,构建涵盖5个层面25个指标的城市精细化管理评价指标体系,采用熵值法确定各项指标权重,计算合肥、南京、杭州3市的精细化管理水平的综合值。根据熵值法的计算结果,采用合肥市2012~2018年的综合得分,建立合肥市精细化管理水平GM(1,1)灰色预测模型。同时根据GM(1,1),预测合肥市未来五年精细化管理水平发展状况。结果表明:在城市精细化管理方面,杭州略优于南京,而合肥与杭州、南京相比差距较大,主要差距体现在信息基础和社会服务方面,在生态环保方面的差距较小;GM(1,1)预测结果:在2019~2023年期间,合肥、南京、杭州精细化管理水平综合评价值将保持稳定的上升趋势。Taking Hefei, Nanjing and Hangzhou as evaluation targets, the city's refined management evaluation index system covering 25 indicators of 5 levels is constructed. The entropy method is used to determine the weights of various indicators, and the refined management level of Hefei, Nanjing and Hangzhou is calculated. According to the calculation results of entropy method, the comprehensive score of 2012-2018 in Hefei city was used to establish the GM (1,1) gray prediction model of Hefei's refined management level. At the same time, according to GM (1,1), the development status of refined management in Hefei city in the next five years is predicted. The results show that Hangzhou is slightly better than Nanjing in terms of urban fine management, and Hefei has a large gap compared with Hangzhou and Nanjing. The main gap is reflected in the information foundation and social services, and the gap in ecological environment is small;GM (1,1) prediction results show that from 2019 to 2023, the comprehensive evaluation value of fine management level in Hefei, Nanjing and Hangzhou will maintain a steady upward trend.

关 键 词：智慧城市 城市精细化管理 熵值 GM(1 1) 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]