基于有限理性的随机网络路径选择模型  

Route Choice Model in Stochastic Network Based on Bounded Rationality

作　　者：赵磊 关宏志[1,2] 张新洁 朱俊泽 ZHAO Lei;GUAN Hongzhi;ZHANG Xinjie;ZHU Junze(College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Transportation Engineering,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京100124 [2]交通工程北京市重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2019年第12期1192-1199,共8页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51338008,51378036)

摘　　要：为研究出行时间不确定条件下有限理性出行者的路径选择行为,以路段容量降级网络为研究对象,将路径自由流时间作为路径走行时间的下界,提出了关于路径走行时间的截断正态分布概率密度函数,建立了考虑路径走行时间边界的出行时间预算模型.通过考虑出行者有限理性的决策特征,以预算时间最小值的无差异阈值作为出行者可接受的最大出行时间,提出了有限理性置信水平的概念,即出行者可以在最短预算时间的无差异阈值内到达目的地的概率.然后,根据随机效用最大化理论,以出行者感知的有限理性置信水平为路径选择成本,构建了考虑可靠性的有限理性交通均衡模型,并给出了其等价的变分不等式问题.此外,设计了一个基于路径的求解算法对所提出的模型进行求解.最后,应用一个数值案例来验证所提出的模型和算法.算例结果表明:忽略路径的自由流时间将降低出行者准时到达的可能性,并且出行者可接受的无差异阈值尺度对其路径选择行为有较大影响.To study the route choice behavior of travelers under travel time uncertainty,a probability density function of truncated normal distribution with respect to route travel time was proposed by taking the route free-flow travel time as the lower bound of route travel time for the degradable transport network.Subsequently,the travel time budget model considering route travel time boundary was developed.Based on boundedly rational decision-making characteristics of travelers,the maximum acceptable travel time was defined as the sum of the shortest travel time budget and in difference threshold,and the concept of boundedly rational confidence level was further presented,which refers to the probability that travelers can arrive within the indifference threshold of the shortest travel time budget.Then,the perceived boundedly rational confidence level of travelers was seen as the travel cost based on the random utility maximization theory,and the reliability-based boundedly rational traffic equilibrium model was developed.Additionally,its equivalent variational inequality problem was formulated.A route-based algorithm was designed to solve the proposed model.Finally,a numerical example was used to verify the proposed model and algorithm.Results show that ignoring the route free-flow travel time will reduce the on-time arrival possibility of travelers,and the scales of acceptable indifference threshold has a great impact on travelers’route choice behavior.

关 键 词：出行时间预算 可靠性 路径走行时间边界 有限理性 无差异阈值 路径选择 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]