冰雪天气下基于道路交通冲突的事故预测研究  

Accident prediction research based on road traffic conflict in ice and snow weather

作　　者：迟佳欣 贺玉龙[1] 刘磊 CHI Jiaxin;HE Yulong;LIU Lei(Key Lab of Traffic Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学交通工程北京市重点实验室

出　　处：《交通科技与经济》2019年第6期31-36,共6页Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0803903)

摘　　要：恶劣天气条件下对道路事故预测的合理性是有效安全措施提出的保障。文中以恶劣天气条件下的冰雪天气为研究对象,选取TTC作为交通冲突的判定指标。基于调查的交通量及交通冲突数据,借助SPSS运用回归分析方法建立交通冲突预测模型,并根据事故与交通冲突的关系建立二者之间的关系模型,最终实现交通事故的合理预测。结果发现,交通冲突数和事故数随着交通量的增加而增加,增长接近到道路能力时,交通冲突数和事故数趋于稳定,不再增加。The rationality of road accident prediction under severe weather conditions is a guarantee for effective safety measures.In this paper,the ice and snow weather under severe weather conditions is taken as the research object,and TTC is selected as the judgment index of traffic conflict.Based on the traffic volume and traffic conflict data,a traffic conflict prediction model is established by using SPSS regression analysis method,and the relationship model between traffic accidents and traffic conflicts is established to achieve a reasonable prediction of traffic accidents.The result shows that the number of traffic conflicts and accidents increases with the increasing of traffic volume.When the increasing approaches the road capacity,the number of traffic conflicts and accidents tends to be stable with no longer increasing.

关 键 词：恶劣天气 冰雪天气 交通冲突 事故预测 交通安全 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]