基于综合干旱指数的黄河流域干旱多变量概率特征研究  

Drought multivariable probability characteristics based on a multivariate standardized drought index in the Yellow River basin

作　　者：王璐[1] 黄生志[1] 黄强[1] 方伟[1] 李凯玮 张迎 WANG Lu;HUANG Shengzhi;HUANG Qiang;FANG Wei;LI Kaiwei;ZHANG Ying(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;Powerchina Beijing Engineering Corporation Limited,Beijing 100024,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [2]中国电建集团北京勘测设计研究院有限公司,北京100024

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2019年第6期70-80,共11页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51709221);陕西省水利科技计划项目(2017slkj-19)~~

摘　　要：变化环境下,全面掌握干旱演变特征对流域水资源管理具有重要意义。基于黄河流域1952-2012年月降水和径流资料,采用Copula函数和综合干旱指数(MSDI)分析了干旱多属性概率特征及其动态变化,运用交叉小波变换,探究了太阳黑子、大气环流异常因子(AO、ENSO)和植被覆盖指数(NDVI)对黄河干旱的影响。结果表明:(1)MSDI综合了SPI和SRI的优势,能够系统全面地反映流域干旱情况;(2)流域上游和中游部分分区不仅容易受到干旱的侵扰,且干旱风险还在加剧;(3)太阳活动、AO、ENSO以及NDVI都对黄河流域干旱有影响,其中太阳活动不仅直接影响MSDI的变化,也通过影响AO和ENSO间接影响MSDI的变化。A comprehensive understanding of the evolution characteristics of droughts is of great significance to the watershed water resources planning and management in the context of changing environment.Based on the monthly precipitation and runoff data ranging from 1952 to 2012 in the Yellow River basin,the multivariate standardized drought index(MSDI)was calculated via Copula function.Subsequently,the multivariable probability characteristics and dynamic changes of droughts were analyzed.Furthermore,the cross-wavelet transform was employed to investigate the effects of solar activity,atmospheric circulation anomaly factors(AO and ENSO)as well as vegetation cover change(NDVI)on the drought evolution of the Yellow River basin.Results showed that:(1)combining the advantage of SPI and SRI,the MSDI can more systematically and comprehensively reflect the drought condition;(2)the upper and middle reaches of the basin are characterized not only by their vulnerability to drought,but also by increased drought risk;(3)all influencing factors,including solar activity,AO,ENSO and NDVI,affect drought evolution in the Yellow River basin.Among them,solar activity not only directly influences MSDI change,but also indirectly influences MSDI change through affecting AO and ENSO.

关 键 词：COPULA函数 综合干旱指数 重现期动态变化 交叉小波变换 黄河流域 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]