地质灾害胁迫下的社会经济恢复力评估及其提升策略——以都江堰市为例  

Assessment of social and economic resilience to geological hazards and its promotion strategy: A case study of Dujiangyan city

作　　者：田丛珊 方一平[1,4] TIAN Congshan;FANG Yiping(Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;College of Architecture and Urban-Rural Planning,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611830,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]四川农业大学建筑与城乡规划学院,四川成都611830 [4]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100190

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2019年第6期127-136,共10页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41661134012,41661144038,41671152);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CBA01808);国家科技支撑计划(2014BAC05B01)~~

摘　　要：地质灾害是困扰易灾地区社会经济发展的难题,有效的社会经济恢复力评估可为破解这一难题提供直接指导。本文从灾前内在条件、应对能力、适应能力、暴露度和脆弱性5个维度构建社会经济恢复力评估模型,并以都江堰市为案例区,评估其2000-2016年社会经济恢复力水平,分析关键因素,并提出针对性对策建议。结果表明:(1)本文构建的社会经济恢复力评估模型具有较好的评估精度;(2)都江堰市的社会经济恢复力呈波动上升趋势,汶川地震引发的次生灾害对恢复力影响显著,泥石流和滑坡灾害的影响最大;(3)灾前内在条件显著受人均GDP和基础设施投资指标影响,移动电话普及率和劳动力占比指标对灾害应对能力的影响最大,灾害适应能力显著受居民现金收入、开展搬迁避让和工程治理的隐患点百分比、恩格尔系数等指标影响;(4)建议地方政府通过改善基础设施、加强防灾减灾培训演练、加强灾害隐患点治理和吸引劳动力返乡就业等多种方式,提升社会经济恢复力。Geological hazards are important factor for hindering social and economic development in disaster-prone areas.The effective assessment of social and economic resilience has become an important strategy for reducing disaster impacts.This study developed a novel framework for the assessment of social and economic resilience based on five dimensions:capacity of inherent conditions(CIC),capacity of coping responses(CCR),capacity of adaptation and learning(CAL),disaster hazards exposure(DHE),and disaster hazard vulnerability(DHV).The case study was carried out in the Dujiangyan city,which was most severely affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.The results show that(1)the model has high precision rate for the assessment of social and economic resilience.(2)The area was highly affected due to debris flows and landslides,however the resilience level were increased during the period of 2000 to 2016.(3)Per capita income,GDP,accessibility to public infrastructure,mobile phones,labor sharing,per capita income,number of potential hazard sites that have carried out engineering measures,and Engel coefficient played significant role for increasing resilience,and(4)Various measures such as improving infrastructure conditions,strengthening drills for hazards prevention and mitigation,implementing engineering measures for potential hazard sites,and encouraging labors employment in hometown were highly recommended for improvement of resilience.

关 键 词：社会经济恢复力 地质灾害 都江堰市 对策建议 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X9