基于Bayes小子样理论和序贯网图检验的武器装备测试性验证试验方案设计  

Design of BSST-SMT-based Weaponry Testability Verification Test Scheme

作　　者：王康 史贤俊 秦亮 聂新华 龙玉峰 WANG Kang;SHI Xianjun;QIN Liang;NIE Xinhua;LONG Yufeng(Naval Aviation University,Yantai 264001,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]海军航空大学

出　　处：《兵工学报》2019年第11期2319-2328,共10页Acta Armamentarii

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(61903374)

摘　　要：针对当前序贯概率比检验方法会导致测试性验证样本量无法控制,以及序贯网图检验方法未能利用先验信息使得确定的样本量仍然存在可能较大的问题,提出一种基于Bayes小子样理论和序贯网图检验相结合的测试性验证样本量确定方法。基于序贯网图检验方法,结合测试性指标的先验分布以及相关参数约束值,划分指标参数空间,并给出Bayes因子及其阈值计算方法;通过对检验点插入位置的确定,给出测试性验证所需最大样本量,同时在考虑使用方风险和承制方风险的基础上设计Bayes小子样理论下序贯网图检验的截尾策略;通过实例进行了验证,并与经典验证方法、序贯概率比检验方法、传统序贯网图方法以及验后序贯加权检验方法进行了对比分析。结果表明,该方法确定的测试性验证截尾样本量以及平均样本量均优于其他方法,同时能有效降低双方风险值。The current sequential probability ratio test method leads to the uncontrollable sample size of testability verification,and the sequential mesh test method can make the determined sample size be still large without using the prior information.A method for determining the sample size of testability verification is proposed,which is based on Bayes small sample theory and sequential mesh test.According to the prior distribution of testability indicators and the related parameter constraint values,the parameter space of indicators is divided based on the sequential mesh test method,and the Bayes factor and its threshold calculation method are given.Once the insertion position of a checkpoint is determined,the maximum sample size required for testability verification could be given.At the same time,a censoring strategy of sequential mesh test based on Bayesian small sample theory was designed,in which the consumer’s and producer’s risks are considered.The proposed method was validated by an example,and compared with classical testability verification method,sequential probability ratio test method,traditional sequential mesh test method and sequential posterior odds test method.The results show that the censored sample size and average sample size determined by the proposed method are better than those of other methods,and the consumer’s and producer’s risks can be effectively reduced.

关 键 词：序贯概率比检验 测试性验证 序贯网图检验 先验信息 Bayes小子样理论 

分 类 号：TJ06[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术]