海底点蚀管道不完全预防性维修模型  

Incomplete preventive maintenance model for the submarine pipeline with pitting corrosion

作　　者：陈鑫[1,2] 余建星 郭帅[1,2] 徐立新 CHEN Xin;YU Jianxing;GUO Shuai;XU Lixin(Tianjin University//State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Simulation and Safety;Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Ship and Deep-Sea Exploration)

机构地区：[1]天津大学·水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室 [2]高新船舶与深海开发装备协同创新中心

出　　处：《油气储运》2019年第12期1432-1440,共9页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目“深海水下油气输送系统安全运行与风险控制”，2014CB046804;国家自然科学基金资助项目“复杂环境下深海工程结构动力特性与安全可靠性研究”，51239008;国家自然科学基金面上项目“深海管道的冲刷腐蚀与防护研究”，51879189;国家科技重大专项“深水厚壁管道屈曲效应研究”，2016ZX05028005-004;国家重点研发计划资助项目“深海浮式结构物安全评估技术研究”，2018YFC0310502;上海交通大学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目“深海顶张紧式立管在复杂载荷作用下的垂向非线性运动与破坏”，1502

摘　　要：为研究海底点蚀管道维修问题,提出了针对不同管道材料和周围环境计算管道失效概率和可靠度指标随时间变化的计算方法,得到了在可靠性限制下的失效概率和可靠度指标的极限值;建立了海底点蚀管道不完全预防性维修模型,采用虚拟役龄和改善因子表征管道每次维修的维修效果,并对改善因子进行敏感性分析,使其能够准确反映管道维修效果;提出了管道寿命和成本计算方法。应用上述方法,对某海上油田已运行多年的海底管道进行了实例计算,对比不同维修周期下的管道寿命和维修成本。结果表明:在准确反映管道维修效果的前提下,该模型能够以更为合理的成本获得最佳的预防性维修周期,验证了该方法的适用性和正确性。In order to research the maintenance problems of the submarine pipelines with pitting corrosion,this paper puts forward a method for calculating the variation of pipeline failure probability and reliability index over the time for different pipe materials and surrounding environments.By virtue of this method,the ultimate failure probability and reliability index under the constraint of reliability were calculated.Then,the incomplete preventive maintenance model for the submarine pipelines with pitting corrosion was established.In this model,the effect of each pipeline maintenance is characterized using virtual age and improvement factor,and the sensitivity analysis is carried out on the improvement factor,so that it can accurately reflect the effect of pipeline maintenance.Finally,the method for calculating pipeline life and cost was put forward.In addition,the above mentioned methods were applied to a case calculation of one certain submarine pipeline which had been in operation for many years,and the pipeline life and maintenance cost under different maintenance cycles were compared.It is indicated that the model can provide the best preventive maintenance cycle at a more reasonable cost while reflecting the pipeline maintenance effect accurately.The applicability and correctness of this method is verified.

关 键 词：海底管道 失效概率 可靠度指标 不完全预防性维修 改善因子 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]