经济政策不确定性与企业并购  

On Uncertainty of Economic Policy and Enterprises M&A

作　　者：江乾坤[1] 潘诗雯 JIANG Qian-kun;PAN Shi-wen(School of Accounting,Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学会计学院

出　　处：《杭州电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第6期1-7,共7页Journal of Hangzhou Dianzi University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(18BGJ013)

摘　　要：传统理论认为经济政策不确定性会抑制并购活动,但现实中政府激励有可能反而促进企业并购规模。文章以斯坦福大学和芝加哥大学联合发布的中国经济政策不确定性指数为经济政策不确定性的衡量指标,基于2007-2017年A股上市公司样本,以面板固定效应模型回归发现:经济政策不确定性对企业并购规模有显著的正向影响。但随着经济政策不确定性的提升,其对企业并购规模的正向影响逐渐减弱,且经济政策不确定性对国有企业的影响更强。Traditional theory takes the uncertainty of economic policy for restraining the M&A, while in reality the government incentives may promote the scale of M&A on the contrary. This paper uses the CEPUI jointly released by the Stanford University and the University of Chicago as a measurable indicator for the economic policy uncertainty. Based on the sample of A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2017, using the panel’s fixed-effects model returns with cluster, it finds that the economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on the enterprises M&A. However, with the increase of the uncertainty of economy policy,its positive impact on enterprises M&A gradually wears off and the economic policy uncertainty has a stronger impact on the state-owned enterprises.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 企业并购 政府干预 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]