2008年-2018年广西省某精神专科医院入院人次季节变化及趋势预测  

Seasonal variation and trend forecast of the number of inpatients in a psychiatric hospital in Guangxi from 2008 to 2018

作　　者：黄淑津 张玲 莫启清 朱晓茜 何辉明 白欣玉 马贞玉[1] Huang Shujin;Zhang Ling;Mo Qiqing;Zhu Xiaoqian;He Huiming;Bai Xinyu;Ma Zhenyu(School of Public Health,Guangxi Medical University,Nanning 530021,China;Nanning Fifth People's Hospital,Nanning 530001,China)

机构地区：[1]广西医科大学公共卫生学院,广西南宁530021 [2]南宁市第五人民医院,广西南宁530001

出　　处：《四川精神卫生》2019年第6期531-535,共5页Sichuan Mental Health

基　　金：广西自然科学基金项目（2014GXNSFBA118163）;广西研究生教育创新计划项目（YCSW2019100）

摘　　要：目的分析广西省某精神专科医院精神障碍患者入院人次的季节性变化,预测2019年-2021年入院人次,为优化医院管理和资源配置提供参考。方法统计广西省某三级精神专科医院2008年-2018年各月份的入院人次,利用季节指数法对11年间各月(季度)进行动态分析,并用灰色模型预测2019年-2021年入院人次。结果该院2月、3月、4月、5月、10月、12月精神障碍患者入院人次季节指数均大于100%,分别为100.53%、115.86%、106.76%、102.58%、100.93%、100.43%。通过灰色预测模型建模,预测2019年-2021年入院量分别为6878、7476、8125人次。结论2012年-2021年该医院精神障碍患者年入院人次呈逐年递增趋势,上半年尤其是春季为入院高峰期。Objective To analyze the seasonal variation of the number of inpatients with mental disorders in a psychiatric hospital in Guangxi,to predict the number of hospitalized from 2019 to 2021,and to provide references for optimizing hospital management and resource allocation.Methods The number of inpatients each month from 2008 to 2018 in a psychiatric hospital of Guangxi was calculated.The seasonal index method was used to dynamically analyze monthly(quarterly)variation during the 11 years.The gray model was used to predict the number of hospitalized patients from 2019 to 2021.Results The seasonal indexes of February,March,April,May,October and December were 100.53%,115.86%,106.76%,102.58%,100.93%and 100.43%,respectively,which were all more than 100%.Based on the gray prediction model,the hospital admissions from 2019 to 2021 were predicted to be 6878,7476 and 8125,respectively.Conclusion From 2012 to 2021,the annual admission of patients with mental disorders in this hospital showed an increasing trend year by year.In the first half of the year,especially in spring reaching the peak of admission.

关 键 词：入院人次 季节指数 精神障碍 灰色模型 趋势预测 

分 类 号：R749[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]