地震活动性总体参量R_t在北京及邻区地震预测中的应用  

Application of general parameter R_t to earthquake prediction in Beijing and its adjacent areas

作　　者：岳晓媛[1] 武安绪[1] 马梁 Yue Xiaoyuan;Wu Anxu;Ma Liang(Beijing Earthquake Agency,Beijing 100080,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市地震局

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》2019年第6期28-34,共7页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

基　　金：北京市地震局资助

摘　　要：采用地震活动性总体参量Rt方法,研究北京及邻区Rt值在中等地震前随时间的变化特征,分析跟踪地震发生前研究区域地震活动状态,探讨中等地震孕震过程的异常信息的变化特征。结果显示:当Rt值大于阈值0.84时,研究区域地震活动状态比较稳定,发生中等地震的可能性较小;反之,表明地震活动处于不稳定状态,具有发生中等地震的危险。检验Rt值的地震预测效能,预测效果比较理想,利用地震活动状态参量Rt研究北京及邻区地震活动状态,判定中等地震发生的风险性,具有一定预测意义。Integrated parameter Rt is used to study the characteristics about the temporal variation of abnormal informations before moderate earthquakes in Beijing and its adjacent areas,analyzed and tracked the seismicity state of the research area before earthquakes.We discussed the characteristics about the temporal variation of precursory information before moderate earthquakes.The result shows that:when the Rt is larger than threshold 0.84,the state of seismic activity is relatively stable in the study area,the possibility of occurring moderate earthquakes is small;otherwise,when the Rt is smaller than threshold 0.84,then shows the seismic state is unstable and the possibility of occurring moderate earthquakes is more likely.The earthquake prediction efficiency of Rt value is tested,and the prediction effect is more ideal,this is significant predictor for study on seismicity state of Beijing and its adjacent areas by using integrated parameter Rt and determined the moderate risk of earthquake occurrence.

关 键 词：北京及邻区 总体状态参量Rt 地震预测效能检验 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]