计及多关联因素的电力行业碳排放权分配方案  

Allocation Scheme of Carbon Emission Rights for Power Industry Considering Multiple Correlated Factors

作　　者：潘险险 余梦泽 隋宇 郇嘉嘉 洪海峰 林俐 PAN Xianxian;YU Mengze;SUI Yu;HUAN Jiajia;HONG Haifeng;LIN Li(Power Grid Planning Center of Guangdong Power Grid Company,Guangzhou 510080,China;State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources(North China Electric Power University),Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]广东电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心,广东省广州市510080 [2]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市102206

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2020年第1期35-42,共8页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190103);已申请国家发明专利(申请号：201711168457.3)~~

摘　　要：电力行业碳排放权的初始分配是保证碳交易市场有效运作的基础和关键。通过对电力行业碳排放过程的特征挖掘,进行指标分解,提取影响碳排放分配结构体系的多关联影响因素;其次,结合专家的知识和经验,基于改进的层次分析法确定各指标的主观权重;接着,采用改进的熵权系数法进行指标映射,构建新的识别参数体系,自适应确定各指标的客观权重;然后,通过主客观权重的优化组合,确定各指标的综合权重,建立电力行业碳排放权的分配模型。最后,以某省区为算例进行对比仿真分析,仿真结果表明:与传统考虑单个因素的分配方案相比,文中方案计及了多关联因素的影响,得到的理论测算结果能更客观地反映地区碳减排权责的实际状况,避免了过于主观或过于客观的片面评估结果。The initial allocation of carbon emission rights for the electric power industry is the basis and key to ensure the effective operation of the carbon trading market. Through the mining of the characteristics of the carbon emissions in the electric power industry, the index decomposition is carried out to extract the multiple correlated factors that affect the carbon emission allocation system. Secondly, based on the knowledge and experience of experts, the subjective weight of each indicator is determined based on the improved analytic hierarchy process. Then, the improved entropy weight method is used to map the indicators, and a new identification parameter system is constructed. The objective weights of each indicator are determined adaptively. Finally, through the optimized combination of subjective and objective weights, the comprehensive weights of each indicator are determined. A case study of a province using comparative simulation analysis is performed to examine the effectiveness of the proposed method.Compared with traditional schemes that consider single factor, the proposed model that considers multiple correlated factors can reflect the actual responsibilities of regional carbon emission reduction more objectively. It can avoid excessively subjective or excessively objective one-sided evaluation results.

关 键 词：多关联因素 碳排放权 分配方案 层次分析法 熵权法 主客观赋权法 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]