经济增长与能源消费动态关系研究  

A Study on the Dynamic Relationship betweenEconomic Growth and Energy Consumption

作　　者：陈黎明[1] 严露 谌方圆 胡荣才[1] CHEN Li-ming;YAN Lu;CHEN Fang-yuan;HU Rong-cai(College of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University,Changsha 410079,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院

出　　处：《技术与创新管理》2020年第1期75-82,共8页Technology and Innovation Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“基于大数据的产业结构优化测工方法研究”(17BTJ040)

摘　　要：能源是社会经济发展的重要基础资源,解决好能源的可持续发展战略问题,是实现中国社会经济可持续发展的重要环节。基于1980—2016年GDP及万元GDP能源消费量数据,运用马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归(MS-VAR)模型,研究能源消费及其变化对经济增长的影响。研究表明,经济增长与能源消费之间的关系存在显著的两区制性质,发展趋势存在明显的非对称性。具体体现在周期阶段的转换概率不同以及周期阶段的持续期不同。尤其是2010—2016年间,随着中国经济的增速逐步放缓,产业结构和能源结构不断发生变化,经济增长与能源消费出现了逐步脱钩的趋势,经济增长对能源消费的依赖显著减弱。Energy is an important basic resource for social and economic development.Solving the problem of sustainable development strategy of energy is an important link for realizing China’s social and economic sustainable development.Drawing on the annual GDP data from 1980 to 2016 and the corresponding energy consumption data per ten thousand Yuan GDP,the influence of energy consumption and its changes on economic growth was studied by using the Markov Zone Transfer Vector Autoregression(MS-VAR)model.It is found that the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption has a significant two-regime feature,and there is a significant asymmetry in the development trend.This is specifically reflected in the different transition probabilities in the cycle phase and the duration of the cycle phase.Especially from 2010 to 2016,with the gradual slowdown of China’s economic growth,the industrial structure and energy structure continued to change,economic growth and energy consumption gradually decoupled,and the dependence of economic growth on energy consumption weakened significantly.

关 键 词：经济增长 能源消费 可持续发展 MS-VAR 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]