TIGGE模式在淮河水系史河流域的应用  

Application of TIGGE precipitation forecast in Shihe Catchment of Huaihe River Basin

作　　者：王建群[1] 段蓉 蔡晨凯 WANG Jianqun;DUAN Rong;CAI Chenkai(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第1期14-21,共8页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0400909)。

摘　　要：为了提高淮河水系史河流域降水预报的精度,对TIGGE模式降水预报校正方法进行了研究。基于TIGGE的ECMWF、KMA、JMA、UKMO、CMA等5个模式2015—2017年汛期在史河流域的降水预报数据和雨量站实测降水资料,采用降水预报的均方根误差指标和在确报率、空报率和漏报率评价指标基础上提出的降水预报三率综合评价指标,对各模式在1~7 d预见期内的预报精度进行综合评价,采用2种非线性方法RBF及ν-SVR对TIGGE的5个降水预报模式进行非线性集合预报校正,并与线性方法BREM法进行了比较。结果表明:TIGGE的5个模式中,JMA模式的降水预报精度最高,其次是ECMWF和UKMO,实时降水预报校正ν-SVR法明显优于BREM法和RBF法;实时降水预报校正ν-SVR法提高了TIGGE模式降水预报的精度。In order to improve the accuracy of precipitation forecasts in the Shihe Catchment of Huaihe River Basin,the data of TIGGE models including JMA,KMA,UKMO,ECMWF and CMA along with the observed data from the rain-measuring stations in the flood season from 2015 to 2017 were used to study the evaluation methods and correction methods of precipitation forecast.On the basis of hit rate,false alarm rate and miss alarm rate,a new three-rate comprehensive index of precipitation forecast was proposed for an entire evaluation.The accuracy of TIGGE precipitation forecast in the Shihe catchment within the 1-7 d prediction period was evaluated by using the root mean square error index and the three rates comprehensive index.The correction methods of precipitation forecast,including the RBF artificial neural network and theν-SVR support vector regression based on the data of TIGGE models,were proposed and compared with the linear method BREM.The results show that JMA model has the highest accuracy of precipitation forecast,the next two are ECMWF and UKMO,andν-SVR method is superior to BREM method and RBF method.As a conclusion,the real-timeν-SVR correction method improves the accuracy of precipitation forecast.

关 键 词：TIGGE 降水预报评估 集合预报方法 人工神经网络 支持向量回归 消除偏差集合平均法 史河流域 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]