省域土地人口经济多维协调格局及分区发展策略  

Multidimensional coordination pattern of provincial land population economy and its zoning development strategy

作　　者：张慧[1] 苏航 薛睿[1,2] 章桂芳[3] Zhang Hui;Su Hang;Xue Rui;Zhang Guifang(School of Public Administration and Law,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;School of Architecture,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,China;School of Geographic Science and Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学公共管理与法学院,哈尔滨150030 [2]哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院,哈尔滨150001 [3]中山大学地球科学与工程学院,广州510275

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2019年第21期262-270,共9页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41402297);黑龙江省博士后基金项目(LBH-Z12032)

摘　　要：从土地、人口与经济多维协调的视角去探讨国土空间开发策略,是破解当前城乡差距和人地矛盾问题的关键。该文改进土地经营规模模型后,对各地市农村土地压力进行测度;采用变换logistic模型,拟合各地区城镇人口缺口;借助结节性指数,探究各地市经济发展综合水平。并将度量总体绝对关系的秩(复)相关系数和局部相对关系的耦合协调度联合运用,对土地、人口、经济系统进行协调性分析。进而依据协调性多维分异结果揭示各地发展模式类型,最后划定空间分区并提出发展建议。结果表明:1)在城乡收入均等化情境下黑龙江省农村土地经营规模为户均11.6 hm^2,此时农业过剩人口1 102万人。饱和城镇化率水平下,城镇人口缺口为789万人。经济水平指数最高为大庆市,分值0.877;2)土地压力、人口缺口、经济水平核密度中心均集聚在黑龙江省西南部地带;3)土地、人口、经济系统间多维协调性均达到较高水平,并形成明显的4类:第1类是城乡协调型,将其划归为产业升级提档区,应谋求替代性支柱产业;第2类是农林专业型,划归为生态农业发展区,应走生态绿色发展的路子,并避免同质化竞争;第3类是城乡差距型,划归为城镇辐射带动区,应充分发挥大城市的带动作用促进周边地区发展;第4类是总体滞后型,划归为城乡复合优化区,应尽快培育工业企业带动城镇发展,农业向多功能化着眼以消化巨量过剩农业人口。To explore land use strategies from the perspective of multidimensional coordination of land, population and economy is the key to solving the current urban-rural gap and the contradiction between human and land resources. In this paper, the improved land management scale model was used to measure the rural land pressure in various regions;the logistic model was used to calculate the urban population gap in various regions;and the nodularity index was used to analyze the comprehensive economic development level of each region. The evaluation results were analyzed with KDE and coupling coordination index. The development types were classified according to the results of coordination analysis. Finally, the spatial planning was carried out and development suggestions were proposed. This paper indicates that the suitable land management scale per household in Heilongjiang Province is 11.6 hm^2, the surplus agricultural population is 11.02 million, and the total pressure on rural land is 51 478 940 hm^2. The urban population carrying capacity of Heilongjiang is 30.31 million, and the urban population gap is 7.89 million. According to KDE analysis, the center of economic development level is located in Daqing City, with a score of 0.877. All KDE centers are located in the west and south of Heilongjiang Province, which shows that the contradiction of development of Heilongjiang Province is concentrated in the west and south. There is a high level of coordination among land, population and economic systems, and formed four different categories. The first categoryis urban-rural coordination model and is classified as an industrial transformation and upgrading zone, including Daqing only. With the depletion of oil resources in the region, we should give full play to its existing financial advantages and find alternative pillar industries in time to cope with the huge transformation pressure faced by the industry. The second category is the agricultural and forestry professional models, which is classified as ecological agr

关 键 词：土地利用 模型 协调发展 土地-人口-经济系统 新型城镇化 耦合协调度 

分 类 号：P963[天文地球—自然地理学]