基于分布滞后非线性模型分析江阴市气温对居民死亡数的影响  

Study on Influence of Air Temperature on Daily Mortality in Jiangyin City from Distributed Lag Non-linear Model

作　　者：张燕茹 章剑[1] 刘娟[1] 洪琪 曹恒富[1] 汤海波[1] 李莹[1] 王敏洁[1] 朱爱萍[1] Zhang Yanru;Zhang Jian;Liu Juan(Jiangyin Center for Disease Control and Prevention(214434),Jiangyin)

机构地区：[1]江阴市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2019年第6期839-842,共4页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：无锡市现场流行病学培训项目

摘　　要：目的研究江阴市日均气温对死亡的影响。方法采用时间序列的分布滞后非线性模型分析2012-2017年江阴市气温对人群死亡的累积效应和滞后效应。结果高温和低温均会引起死亡效应增强,高温对每日居民非意外死亡、心脑血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统死亡的影响主要是短期即时效应,低温对居民非意外死亡、心脑血管和呼吸系统疾病死亡的效应均具有滞后性,滞后效应长达14天。非意外死亡、心脑血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡人群对冷热效应的气温风险最低点分别为25℃、19℃和25℃。低温时非意外死亡和心脑血管疾病死因14天累积RR值分别为2.05(95%CI:1.51,2.79)、1.52(95%CI:1.04,2.21)。高温对呼吸系统疾病死亡14天累积RR值为1.52(95%CI:1.08,2.14)。结论高温和低温均可导致死亡风险增加,应针对脆弱人群和危重患者加强防护措施降低死亡风险。Objective To examine the effects of daily air temperature on mortality.Methods A time-series analysis using distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to estimate the delayed and cumulative effects of temperature on mortality in Jiangyin from 2012 to 2017.Results Both higher and lower air temperature may increase the risk of mortality.The minimum mortality temperature(MMT)of all nonaccidental death,cardiovascular(CVD)death and respiratory death were 251、19t and 25^2.It was indicated that the hot effects were immediate,while the cold effects persisted up to 14 days.The relative risk of all non-accidental death and cardiovascular(CVD)death were 2.05(95%CI:1.51,2.79)and 1.52(95%C/:1.04,2.21)for extremely cold temperature(2.5st percentile of temperature),and the relative risk of respiratory death was 1.52(95%C/:1.08,2.14)for extreme hot temperature(97.5th percentile of temperature)at lagO-14 days.Conclusion Both cold and hot temperatures increase mortality risk in Jiangyin.Our findings suggest that related preventive measures should be adopted to protect vulnerable population and severe patients to reduce the mortality risk based on the local climate conditions.

关 键 词：气温 日死亡人数 时间序列 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R[医药卫生]