基于雷达估算降雨的湖北漳河流域径流模拟研究  

Research on runoff simulation of Zhanghe Basin based on radar estimation precipitation

作　　者：殷志远[1] 杨芳[2] 王斌[1] 胡小梅[3] YIN Zhiyuan;YANG Fang;WANG Bin;HU Xiaomei(Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research,Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration,Wuhan 430205,China;Hubei Meteorological Information and Technological Support Centre,Wuhan 430074,China;Hubei Zhanghe Project Administration Bureau,Jingmen 448100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430205 [2]湖北省气象信息与技术保障中心,湖北武汉430074 [3]湖北省漳河工程管理局,湖北荆门448100

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2020年第1期143-151,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507200);国家自然基金重点国际合作研究项目(41620104009);湖北省气象局科技发展基金重点项目(2015Z02,2018Z05)~~

摘　　要：本文以湖北省漳河流域为研究对象,从2008-2017年中选取了16次洪水过程(10次过程用于率定参数,6次过程用于检验),分别采用了4种方法进行雷达降雨估算,并将估算结果输入到TOPMODEL和新安江模型进行了径流模拟计算。结果表明:4种雷达降雨估算方法中动态Z-I的平均相对误差最小为8.16%,其次是分组Z-I为20.1%,最优Z-I和经典Z-I分别为29.7%和29.02%;从径流模拟结果来看,动态Z-I效果最佳,分组Z-I次之,最优Z-I和经典Z-I模拟效果相对较差,且TOPMODEL模型的洪峰相对误差和峰现时差比新安江模型的模拟结果要小,新安江模型模拟结果的确定性系数与TOPMODEL模型接近。This paper takes Zhanghe River Basin in Hubei Province as the research object.Twelve flood processes were selected from 2008 to 2017(ten processes were used to calibrate parameters and six processes were used to test).Four methods were used to estimate radar rainfall,and the estimated result was input into TOPMODEL and Xin′an Jiang model for runoff simulation.The result shows that the dynamic Z-I had the smallest average relative error 8.16%,followed by grouped Z-I was 20.1%,optimal Z-I was 29.7%and classical Z-I was 29.02%.The dynamic Z-I had the best result of runoff simulation,followed by grouped Z-I,that optimal Z-I and classical Z-I were relatively the worse.Moreover,the relative errors of peak and the time difference of TOPMODEL model were smaller than Xin′an Jiang model,but the certainty coefficient of Xin′an Jiang model was close to the TOPMODEL model.

关 键 词：雷达估算降雨 TOPMODEL模型 新安江模型 径流模拟 漳河流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]