基于假设抽取法的中国区域间碳排放关联分析  

Correlation Analysis of Regional Carbon Emission in China Based on the Hypothetical Extraction Method

作　　者：马忠[1] 耿文婷 MA Zhong;GENG Wenting(College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2020年第2期312-323,共12页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.41461115,41061050)~~

摘　　要：区域间碳排放的产业关联可为区域间碳减排责任分摊提供科学依据,运用HEM(hypothetical extraction method,假设抽取法),以不同年份中国各省(自治区、直辖市)区域间投入产出表(不包含港澳台地区数据)为基础,对比分析了2012年和2007年中国八大区域17个产业群的碳关联以及各区域的PBE (基于生产的碳排放)和CBE (基于消费的碳排放).结果表明:①与2007年相比,2012年中国八大区域总碳排放量变化趋势稳定,但是部分区域某些产业群的碳排放量有明显上升或下降的趋势;2012年和2007年八大区域各产业群对产业系统净输出和净吸收的碳具有显著的相似性.②2012年和2007年中国八大区域的建筑业后项碳关联相对指标均大于1,其中,2012年中部区域、西北区域和西南区域建筑业后项碳关联相对指标分别为9.446、6.935、8.365,2007年分别为5.428、7.576、5.298,这3个区域的建筑业后项碳关联位居八大区域的前三位,是建筑业最具潜力的三大碳排放区域;除京津区域和南部沿海区域以外,其余区域的石化工业,电力蒸汽热水、煤气自来水生产供应业等前项碳关联相对指标均大于1.③PBE较大的区域,其CBE也较大,如三大沿海区域、中部区域和西部区域,而京津区域的PBE和CBE均最小.④各区域的石化工业和电力蒸汽热水、煤气自来水生产供应业的PBE均最大,建筑业和其他服务业的CBE最大.研究显示,发达的沿海区域和发展中区域减排责任分摊比重较高,其对能源需求较高,致使产生的碳排放较多,其中尤以石化工业和电力蒸汽热水、煤气自来水生产供应业等对碳排放的影响较大.The industrial correlation of regional carbon emissions provides scientific basis for the allocation of regional carbon emission reduction responsibilities.Based on the input-output tables(excluding the data of Hang Kong,Macao and Taiwan)of China in different years,the hypothetical extraction method(HEM)is used to make a comparative analysis on the carbon correlation of 17 industrial clusters in eight major regions of China in 2012 and 2007,as well as the statistics of Production Based Carbon Emissions(PBE)and Consumption Based Carbon Emissions(CBE)in each region.The results show that:(1)Comparing with that of 2007,the change trend of the total carbon emissions in 2012 in all regions is stable.However,the carbon emission of some industrial clusters in some regions shows a trend of obvious increase or decrease;In 2012 and 2007,the industrial clusters in the eight regions have significant similarities to the net output and net absorption of carbon in the industrial system.(2)In 2012 and 2007,the construction industry in the eight regions has a backward linkage emission relative indices of greater than 1.In the central region,northwest region and southwest region were 9.446,6.935 and 8.365 in 2012,respectively,and in 2007 were 5.428,7.576 and 5.298,ranking in the top three among the eight regions,which are the three most potential carbon emission regions in the construction industry;Except for Beijing and Tianjin Regions and the southern coastal areas,the forward linkage emission relative indices,such as petrochemical industry,electric power and steam hot water,gas tap water production and supply industries,arelarger than 1.(3)The CBE is also larger in areas with larger PBE,such as the three major coastal areas,the central region and the western region,while the PBE and CBE in Beijing and Tianjin Regions are the smallest.(4)The PBE in petrochemical industry,electric power steam hot water,gas tap water production and supply industries in each region is the largest.Construction and other service industries have the la

关 键 词：碳排放 假设抽取法 碳关联 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]