基于组合模型下的河南省粮食生产相关投入分析及产量趋势预测  

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Grain Production and Forecast of Yield Trend in Henan Province

作　　者：裴贝贝 毕庆生[1] 尚俊妍 PEI Bei-bei;BI Qing-sheng;SHANG Jun-yan(Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration,Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学河南省土地整治与生态重建工程技术研究中心

出　　处：《科技和产业》2020年第1期69-73,共5页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：河南省科技攻关项目(192102310251);河南省科技攻关项目(182102110073)

摘　　要：以河南省粮食总产量存在的波动性入手,应用主成分分析法对粮食生产相关投入进行组合提取分析,并对未来5年河南省粮食总产量进行建模预测。通过主成分分析显示,一是提取了农业基础资源投入与农业现代化水平因子及农业政策因子,贡献率分别为72.668%和15.429%;二是乡村从业人员与粮食产量趋势呈负相关,是由于随着农业生产多方面的投入增多,从中减少了一部分劳动力。运用所建立的GM(1,1)模型预测,未来5年,河南省粮食总产量仍将保持平缓增长的发展趋势,到2022年将达到7389.58万t。该研究结果可作为相关部门制定粮食发展规划和政策措施的重要参考。Starting with the fluctuation of the total grain output in Henan Province,the principal component analysis method was used to extract and analyze the combined input of grain production,and the total grain output in Henan Province in the next five years was modeled and predicted.The results of principal component analysis show that,firstly,the input of basic agricultural resources and the level of agricultural modernization and agricultural policy factors are extracted,and the contribution rates are 72.668%and 15.429%respectively;secondly,the trend of grain production is negatively correlated with the rural employees,which is due to the reduction of part of the input from agricultural production with the increase of various inputs.The labor.Using the established GM(1,1)model,it is predicted that in the next five years,the total grain output of Henan Province will continue to grow smoothly,reaching 73.8958 million tons by 2022.The results of this study can be used as an important reference for relevant departments to formulate food development planning and policy measures.

关 键 词：粮食生产 影响因素 主成分分析 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]