基于NL模型的昌九客运交通方式选择分析  

Analysis on Choice of Changjiu Passenger Transport Mode Based on NL Model

作　　者：梁安宁 黄娜娜 张兵 桑梓 温尚武 Liang Anning;Huang Nana;Zhang Bing;Sang Zi;Wen Shangwu(Jiangxi Vocational College of Transportation Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Transportation and Logistics,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省交通职业技术学院,江西南昌330013 [2]华东交通大学交通运输与物流学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《华东交通大学学报》2020年第1期54-60,共7页Journal of East China Jiaotong University

基　　金：江西省重点研发计划一般项目（20161BBG70080)

摘　　要：针对客运通道内的交通方式合理规划问题,对南昌至九江运输通道内的客运交通方式分担率进行研究。首先,根据德尔菲法确定影响出行方式的主要因素并依此建立效用函数和巢式logit模型;其次,运用TransCAD对模型的参数进行标定,并用SPSS软件对调查问卷的内容和统计结果进行分析;最后,结合调查结果和分担率模型,计算昌九客运通道内4种交通方式的分担率。计算结果与调查结果基本一致,证明模型的适用性,并通过分析未来客运通道内旅客出行选择的偏好,给交通行业发展提出参考意见。In view of the problem of reasonable transportation planning in the passenger transportation channel,the sharing rate of passenger transportation modes in the Nanchang-Jiujiang transportation corridor is studied in this paper.Firstly,according to the Delphi method,the main factors affecting the mode of travel are determined and the utility function and nested logit model are established.Secondly,the parameters of the model are calibrated by TransCAD,and the contents and statistical results of the questionnaire are analyzed by SPSS software.Finally,based on the combination of the survey results and the sharing rate model,the sharing rate of the four modes of transportation in the Changjiu passenger transport channel is calculated.The calculation results are basically consistent with the survey results,which proves the applicability of the model,and provides suggestions for the development of the transportation industry by analyzing the preferences of passenger travel choices in the future passenger transport corridor.

关 键 词：昌九城际 德尔菲法 效用函数 巢式LOGIT模型 客流分担率 

分 类 号：U125[交通运输工程]