宏观调控下我国“房股互动”关系研究  

Transmission Mechanism between Stock Market and Housing Market under Policy Intervene:Quantitative Analyses by Financial Dynamic CGE Model

作　　者：陈华 郑晓亚[2] CHEN Hua;ZHENG Xiaoya(l.Institute of Digital Currency,The Peopled Bank of China,Beijing,100800;China Construction Bank Corporation,Beijing,100033)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行数字货币研究所,北京100800 [2]中国建设银行股份有限公司,北京100033

出　　处：《经济与管理》2020年第1期60-70,共11页Economy and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目（71703165）

摘　　要：构建金融动态CGE模型,实证研究我国房市与股市间的量价互动关系。从价格关系来看,我国"房股"价格变动在方向上与经典理论基本一致,但程度上整体偏弱,在市场与政策的双重挤压下,房地产泡沫仍未出现显著收缩。就量价关系而言,房市供给侧与需求端均与股价波动高度相关,股价大幅上涨将推动房地产部门"去库存",但房地产行业在研究区间内"产能过剩"的局面未现质变,供给侧改革与市场调控任重道远。对政策制定者而言,货币政策或可考虑兼顾多重目标,关注资产价格变动,正视"两大蓄水池"之间的联动关系,以稳健中性为前提重点考虑结构性因素,实现资源精准投放;房市调控应做到"有保有压",在避免泡沫进一步扩大的同时防范价格大幅波动,为我国经济长期稳定健康发展保驾护航。Based on financial dynamic CGE model,an empirical research is conducted on the relationship between China’s housing market and stock market.From the perspective of price relationship,the price changes of China’s"housing stocks"are basically the same as the classic theory,but the overall level is weak.Under the dual squeeze of the market and policies,the real estate bubble has not contracted significantly.As far as the volume-price relationship is concerned,both the supply side and the demand side of the housing market are highly correlated with stock price fluctuations.A sharp rise in stock prices will promote the"destocking"of the real estate sector,but the situation of"overcapacity"in the real estate industry within the research interval has not changed.There is still a long way to go for supply side reform and market regulation.For policy makers,monetary policy may consider taking into account multiple objectives,paying attention to the changes in asset prices,facing up to the linkage relationship between the"two major reservoirs",focusing on structural factors on the premise of stable neutrality,and achieving accurate investment.The regulation of the housing market should be"with security and pressure",while avoiding further expansion of the bubble while preventing large price fluctuations,to escort the long-term stable and healthy development of our economy.

关 键 词：股票市场 房地产市场 金融动态可计算一般均衡模型 经济效应 量价关系 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]