2004-2015年新疆喀什地区百日咳的动力学建模与仿真  

Modeling and simulation of transmission dynamics of pertussis in Kashi Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang

作　　者：文静 王建鹏 王凯[2] WEN Jing;WANG Jianpeng;WANG Kai

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学应用数学学院,乌鲁木齐830012 [2]新疆医科大学医学工程与技术学院,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《科技视界》2020年第2期136-140,共5页Science & Technology Vision

摘　　要：目的:基于新疆喀什地区2004-2015年百日咳每年的新发病例数据,建立动力学模型来分析百日咳的传播规律,为喀什地区制定百日咳控制策略提供行之有效的定量参考依据。方法:根据百日咳的传播机制,使用传染病动力学建模方法构建百日咳动力学传播模型,使用马尔可夫蒙特卡罗算法(MCMC)进行模型参数估计和拉丁超立方抽样方法(LHS)进行模型参数的敏感性分析。结果:分析百日咳动力学模型,得到模型拟合结果[平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE=19.27%),均方根百分比误差(RMSPE=27.35%)]和基本再生数R0=11.5192 [95%CI:11.4648-11.5727],说明新疆喀什地区百日咳已有成为地方病的趋势。通过模型参数敏感性分析看到,百日咳的传播率β、恢复率γ和新生儿接种率p对百日咳的传播有着重要的影响。结论:新疆喀什地区百日咳新发感染数有上升趋势,有关部门应加强对高危人群的预防与检测,定期关注新疆喀什百日咳的传播与流行情况,适当扩大监测对象进而有效的预防和控制百日咳病情的进一步扩大。Objective : Based on the new case data of pertussis from 2004 to2015 in kashi region of xinjiang, we analyse transmission regular of pertussis by constructing the dynamical model to provide more effective quantitative reference basis for formulating pertussis control strategy in kashi region. Methods : By constructing the dynamical model of pertussis, we make parameter estimation of the dynamical model by the Markov monte carlo algorithm and make parametric sensitivity analysis of the dynamical model by the Latin hypercube sampling method. Results : Analysing pertussis dynamical model, we can see that the model is well evaluated by[ Average percentage error( MAPE=19.27%), root mean square error(RMSPE =27.35%), and the basic regeneration numberR0=11.5192[95% CI:11.4648-11.5727], which indicate the prevalence of kashi pertussis in xinjiang. We can also know that the transmission rates of pertussi β, recovery rate of pertussis γ and inoculation rate of newborn p are important to the pertussis transmission.

关 键 词：动力学模型 参数估计 敏感性分析 疾病控制 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学] R516.6[理学—基础数学]