安徽省人口老龄化预测与分析——基于灰色GM(1,1)模型  

Prediction and Analysis of Population Aging in Anhui Province——Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

作　　者：李鲁 LI Lu(School of International Trade and Economics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《洛阳理工学院学报（社会科学版）》2020年第1期25-31,79,共8页Journal of Luoyang Institute of Science and Technology：Social Science Edition

基　　金：安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目“我国零售电商平台对就业带动的影响研究”(编号:ACYC2018079)的部分成果

摘　　要：当前,中国人口老龄化问题日益突出,老年人口数量在逐年上升,解决人口老龄化以及养老问题,发展养老产业势在必行。通过对安徽省65岁及以上老年人口数量和老年系数的预测,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型,并借助Matlab软件进行计算和检验,对安徽省2018~2023年65岁及以上的老年人口进行预测。研究结果显示:2018~2023年安徽省老龄人口数量呈现上升的态势,2020年老年人口数量将突破900万,至2023年将达到950.15万人,老年系数为15.59%,说明安徽省人口老龄化问题突出,未来的养老形势严峻。最后根据问题提出适宜的解决方案。At present,with the number of the elderly people increasing year by year,the problem of population aging in China becomes constantly prominent and it is urgent to develop the pension industry in order to solve the problem of aging population and pension.Based on the prediction of the number and coefficient of the elderly population aged 65 and those above in Anhui Province,this paper uses the grey GM(1,1)model and makes calculation and test with the help of Matlab software to estimate the elderly population aged 65 and those above from 2018 to 2023 in Anhui Province.The results show that the number of the elderly people in Anhui Province increases during the period of 2018~2023.In 2020,the number of elderly people will exceed 9 million,reaching 9.5015 million by 2023 with the coefficient of 15.59.It indicates that the problem of population aging in Anhui Province is extraordinary and the situation of future pension is severe.Finally,the appropriate solutions are put forward with regard to the problems.

关 键 词：灰色预测 GM(1 1)模型 人口老龄化 预测与分析 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]