中国、老挝、缅甸和泰国澜沧江—湄公河国际航运现状及未来发展趋势研究  

A Study on Current Situation and Future Development Trend of International Shipping in the Lancang-Mekong River Among China,Laos,Myanmar and Thailand

作　　者：李睿[1] 肖克平[1] LI Rui;XIAO Keping

机构地区：[1]中国交通运输部水运科学研究院

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2019年第5期58-65,共8页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：2017年度“澜沧江—湄公河专项合作基金”资助项目之一

摘　　要：澜沧江—湄公河国际航运是促进中国、老挝、缅甸和泰国4国经贸往来、区域开发以及人文交往的重要载体。本文在详细分析过去航运基础设施、运输能力、运输市场以及支持保障体系等现状的基础上,剖析当前4国国际航运发展面临的机遇与挑战,结合沿江经济现状及发展趋势,利用灰色多元线性回归分析方法,对2025年和2035年4国航运量进行客观预测,并对未来4国港口发展趋势进行研判。The Lancang-Mekong River international shipping is an important carrier to promote economic and trade exchanges,regional development and cultural exchanges between China,Laos,Myanmar and Thailand.Based on a detailed analysis of the past shipping infrastructure,transport capacity,transport market and the current situation of support system,this paper analyses the opportunities and challenges faced by the four countries international shipping development.Combining with the current situation and development trend of the economy along the River,this paper objectively predicts the shipping volume of the four countries in 2025 and 2035 with theGrey Multivariate Linear Regression Analysis Method,and forecasts the future ports of the four countries.

关 键 词：澜沧江—湄公河 中老缅泰 国际航运 发展趋势预测 

分 类 号：F551[经济管理—产业经济]