人口素质红利时代的中国服务业增长  

The Impact of Population Quality on the Accelerated Growth of Service Industry

作　　者：张月友[1,2] 董启昌 方瑾 宗文 Zhang Yue-You;Dong Qi-Chang;Fang Jin;Zong Wen

机构地区：[1]南京大学长江产业经济研究院 [2]江苏长江产业经济研究院 [3]中国建设银行上海自贸试验区新片区分行机构业务部 [4]南京财经大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2020年第3期56-65,共10页Economist

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国生产性服务业发展的战略转变和机制设计研究”(15BJY023);江苏省社会科学基金重点项目“江苏创新全球化水平及其影响因素研究”(17WTA001);国家自然科学基金青年项目“媒体关注、投资者反应与企业危机负面溢出效应”(71702068)。

摘　　要：本文从微观视角考察人口素质差异对服务业增长的影响。以中国为背景的研究显示,2011年为中国服务业加速增长的时间拐点,且随着技术进步和人均收入水平提高,高素质人口在中国服务业加速增长中发挥着越来越重要的作用。进一步的研究表明,人口素质对于服务业增长的直接影响机制可以分解为高素质人口的“比较优势效应”、“机会成本效应”、“心理偏好效应”和“相对价格效应”四种。本文为划分中国所处发展阶段提供了重要的理论基础,对中国经济进入“刘易斯拐点”后,推进高质量发展和由服务业大国迈向服务业强国具有政策启示意义。This study investigated the effect of population quality on service industry growth from a micro perspective.Studies with China as the background show that 2011 was the time turning point for the accelerated growth of China's service industry,and with the advancement of technology and the increase in per capita income levels,high-quality populations have played an increasingly important role in the accelerated growth of China's service industry.Further research shows that the direct influence mechanism of population quality on service industry growth can be decomposed into four types:"comparative advantage effect","opportunity cost effect","psychological preference effect" and "relative price effect" of high-quality population.This article provides an important theoretical basis for classifying China's development stage.It has policy implications for promoting high-quality development of China and China's transition from a major service country to a strong service country after China's economy has entered the"Lewis Turning Point".

关 键 词：刘易斯拐点 人口素质 技能溢价 经济服务化 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]