气象因素对上海市长宁区脑卒中死亡的影响  

Impact of meteorological factors on stroke death in Changning district,Shanghai

作　　者：何晓定[1] 周迎春[2] HE Xiao-ding;ZHOU Ying-chun(Changning District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200051,China;School of Statistics,Faculty of Economics and Management,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市长宁区疾病预防控制中心,上海200051 [2]华东师范大学经管学部统计学院,上海200062

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2020年第3期274-277,共4页Practical Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的探索气象因素对脑卒中死亡的影响。方法收集2004-2016年上海市长宁区脑卒中患者死亡数据以及同期气象数据,分析气象因素对脑卒中患者死亡的影响。结果脑卒中死亡与平均气温、日照时间、降水量、蒸发量、降雨日都存在负相关关系,与平均气温的相关关系最强(r=-0.71,P<0.001)。在逐步回归模型中,月平均气温每升高1℃,当月脑卒中死亡人数减少1.347人(F=156.3,P<0.001)。非参数回归模型显示,气温对脑卒中死亡影响并非呈线性变化,在月均气温小于10℃时,月均气温每上升1℃,脑卒中死亡人数即可下降1.879人。随着气温的上升,气温对脑卒中死亡的影响逐渐减小,当月平均气温到27℃,气温对脑卒中死亡影响达到最低。结论加强低温和高温季节的脑卒中患者和高危人群的主动预防,完善脑卒中发病人群的救治途径,并且积极提供脑卒中患者病后康复治疗,减少并发症(如致残)的产生,可以降低脑卒中的死亡率。Objective To explore the impact of meteorological factors on stroke death.Methods The data concerning stroke deaths in Changning district of Shanghai from 2004 to 2016 and the meteorological data of the same period were collected to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on death of patients with stroke.Results There was a negative correlation between stroke death and the average temperature,sunshine duration,precipitation,evaporation,the number of days with rainfall,and the correlation of stroke death with the average temperature was the strongest(r=-0.71,P<0.001).Only the average temperature entered the stepwise regression model of stroke death.For every 1℃increase in the monthly average temperature,the number of stroke deaths in the month decreased by 1.347(F=156.3,P<0.001).The nonparametric regression model showed that the impact of temperature on stroke death did not vary in a linear fashion.When the monthly average temperature was less than 10℃,the number of stroke deaths decreased by 1.879 for every 1℃increase in the monthly average temperature.The impact of temperature on stroke death gradually decreased with the increase of temperature.When the monthly average temperature reached 27℃,the temperature had the lowest impact on stroke death.Conclusions We can reduce the mortality rate of stroke through strengthening the active prevention of stroke patients and high-risk groups in the low and high temperature seasons,improving the treatment ways of stroke patients,actively providing rehabilitation therapy for stroke patients and reducing the occurrence of complications(such as disability).

关 键 词：平均气温 脑卒中死亡 影响 预防控制 

分 类 号：R743.3[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]