基于改进灰色马尔可夫模型的实证分析——以上海入境旅客人数预测为例  

Empirical Analysis Based on Improved Grey Markov Model——Prediction of the Number of Inbound Passengers in Shanghai

作　　者：郑芷雪 郑列[1] ZHENG Zhixue;ZHENG Lie(School of Sciences,Hubei Univ.of Tech.,Wuhan 430068,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北工业大学理学院,湖北武汉430068

出　　处：《湖北工业大学学报》2020年第1期101-105,共5页Journal of Hubei University of Technology

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(17YJA790098)。

摘　　要：通过级比检验和马氏检验分别测试上海入境旅客人数的原始数据,原始数据满足级比检验且具有马氏性,然后用传统GM(1,1)模型与初始值校正GM(1,1)模型分别来预测。结果表明,在相对误差、后验差比值与精度三方面对比,初始值校正GM(1,1)模型得到的效果更好。再将初始值校正GM(1,1)模型与加权马尔可夫模型组合成改进灰色马尔可夫模型,结果显示,预测结果的平均相对误差比初始值校正GM(1,1)模型要小,结果更精确。因此,使用改进灰色马尔可夫模型对上海2018-2020年的入境旅客人数预测,结果为:887.63万,900.42万和913.39万人次。The raw data of Shanghai inbound passengers are tested by the ratio test and the Markov test.The original data satisfy the grade test and have Markov property.The traditional GM(1,1)model and the initial value corrected GM(1,1)model are predicted separately.The results show that compared with the relative error,posterior difference ratio and accuracy,the initial value correction GM(1,1)model is better.The initial value corrected GM(1,1)model and the weighted Markov model are combined into an improved grey Markov model.The results show that the average relative error of the prediction results is smaller than the initial value correction GM(1,1)model,and the result is more accurate.Therefore,using the improved grey Markov model to predict the number of inbound passengers in Shanghai from 2018 to 2020 yields the following results:8,876,300,9,004,200 and 9,313,900.These data can provide reference for Shanghai tourism department and Shanghai tourism enterprises in inbound tourism.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 灰色马尔可夫模型 入境旅客人数 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] F224[经济管理—产业经济]