河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控效果分析  

Analysis Epidemic Prevention and Control Effect of COVID-19 in Henan

作　　者：李承倬 冯敖梓 武文韬 潘振宇[2] 李筱 吕军 徐安定 LI Chengzhuo;FENG Aozi;WU Wentao;PAN Zhenyu;LI Xiao;LYU Jun;XU Anding(Fhe First Affiliated Hospital to Ji'nan University,Guangzhou Guangdong China 510630;Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an Shaanxi China 710061;Qinghai Vocational and Technical Institute of Health,Xining Qinghai China 810000)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学附属第一医院,广东广州510630 [2]西安交通大学,陕西西安710061 [3]青海卫生职业技术学院,青海西宁810000

出　　处：《中医学报》2020年第3期497-500,共4页Acta Chinese Medicine

摘　　要：目的:通过构建河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎的SIR模型和基本再生数的变化趋势,分析评价河南省的防控效果,并针对疾病恢复期提供建议。方法:选取河南省2020年1月21日至2月19日的疫情资料进行分析研究。使用R(3.6.2)来构建SIR模型,ode函数用来求解微分方程,optim函数用来优化模型。最终建立了河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行趋势SIR图,并将之与疾病实际流行过程对比。同时分析了SIR模型下和实际情况下的R0变化趋势,并利用指数平滑模型进行了预测。结果:SIR模型峰值的感染人数大大超过了实际情况,实际变化数据的R0趋势图也低于SIR模型得出的R0变化趋势图,这说明河南省的疫情防控措施起了很大的作用,有效避免了大量人群的感染。结论:河南省针对此次新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的防控措施有效地限制了疫情的扩散,防治效果显著,应继续做好疫情的针对性防控措施。Objective:By constructing corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)SIR model and changing trend of basic reproduction number in Henan province,the prevention and control effect of Henan province was analyzed and evaluated,and suggestions were provided for disease recovery period.Methods:The epidemic data from January 21 to February 19 in Henan province were analyzed and used R(3.6.2)to build SIR model,ode function to solve differential equation,optim function to optimize model.Finally,the SIR chart of the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Henan province was established and compared with the actual epidemic process of the disease.At the same time,the change trend of R0 under SIR model and actual situation is analyzed,and the index smoothing model is used to predict.Results:The number of people infected at the peak value of SIR model has greatly exceeded the actual situation,and the R0 trend chart of the actual change data is also lower than the R0 trend chart obtained by SIR model,which shows that the epidemic prevention and control measures in Henan province have played a great role in effectively avoiding the infection of a large number of people.Conclusion:The prevention and control measures for the COVID-19 epidemic in Henan province have effectively limited the spread of the epidemic,and the prevention and control effect is significant.We should continue to take targeted prevention and control measures for the epidemic.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 SIR模型 基本再生数 疫情防控 防控效果 

分 类 号：R256.1[医药卫生—中医内科学]