基于SIR模型和基本再生数的浙江省新型冠状病毒肺炎防控效果分析  

Prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 in Zhejiang province based on SIR model and R0

作　　者：李承倬 武文韬[2] 潘振宇 邓玉皎 李筱 代志军 吕军 LI Chengzhuo;WU Wentao;PAN Zhenyu(Department of Clinical Research,the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University,Guangzhou 510630,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学附属第一医院临床研究部,广州510630 [2]西安交通大学公共卫生学院 [3]青海卫生职业技术学院临床医学系 [4]浙江大学医学院附属第一医院乳腺外科

出　　处：《浙江医学》2020年第4期311-314,共4页Zhejiang Medical Journal

摘　　要：目的利用SIR模型和基本再生数(R0)的变化趋势,对浙江省新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的防控效果进行分析,并针对疫情后续防控措施提供建议。方法从浙江省卫生健康委员会官网处获取自2020年1月21日至2月16日共计27d的疫情信息,用于构建SIR模型和疫情分析。截至2020年2月16日24时,浙江省累计确诊1171例,累计出院470例,死亡0例。使用R(3.6.2)软件构建和求解微分方程,同时使用optim函数进行优化,绘制出浙江省COVID-19的SIR模型。通过估算当前的R0值,并以折线图的方式直观地展示R0的变化,对疫情控制效果作出评价。结果COVID-19属于指数型增长。SIR模型显示在浙江省当前的防控措施下,疾病的感染人数已经有效降低。R0的下降也同样反映了浙江省的疫情防控效果是显著的。结论浙江省COVID-19防控措施的效果可观,疫情已经得到了初步控制,应继续坚持针对性的防控措施。Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of the prevention and control for coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Zhejiang province with SIR model and the trend of R0.Methods The epidemic data of COVID-19 fromJanuary 21 to February 16 were obtained fromthe official website of Zhejiang Health Commission.A SIR model was constructed to analyze epidemic situation.Up to February 16,1171 cases of COVID-19 were diagnosed in Zhejiang province,among whom 470 were discharged and there was no death case.R software 3.6.2 was used to construct the differential equation,and the optim function was used to optimize the SIR model of the COVID-19 epidemic in Zhejiang province.By estimating the current R0 values and displaying them in a line chart,the trand of R0 was observed intuitively and the control effect was evaluated.Results The SIR model showed that the COVID-19 was a disease with exponential growth,the number of infected individuals in Zhejiang province had been effectively reduced due to the current prevention and control measures.The decrease of R0 indicated that the prevention and control in Zhejiang was effective.Conclusion The prevention and control measures of COVID-19 in Zhejiang province are effective and the epidemic situation has been initially controlled.However the targeted prevention and control measures should continue to be adhered to.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 SIR 模型 基本再生数 防控效果 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181.8[医药卫生—内科学]