粤西地区及各地级市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展趋势预测分析—基于Holt双参数指数平滑模型的研究  

Prediction of Epidemic Tread of COVID-19 in Western Guangdong and Other Prefecture-level Cities:a Study Based on Holt Two-parameter Exponential Smoothing Model

作　　者：林挺葵 吴家园 刘华锋 潘振宇[3] 李筱 赖维光 赖天文 吕军 LIN Tingkui;WU Jiayuan;LIU Huafeng;PAN Zhenyu;LI Xiao;LAI Weiguang;LAI Tianwen;LYU Jun(Clinical Research Center(Scientific Research Department),the Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University,Zhanjiang 524001,China;Department of Nephrology,the Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University,Zhanjiang 524001,China;Department of Pharmacy,Xi'an Children's Hospital,Xi'an 710003,China;Department of Clinical Medicine,Qinghai Institute of Health Sciences,Xining 810000,China;Department of Respiratory and Critical Medicine,the Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University,Zhanjiang 524001,China;Clinical Research Department,the First Affiliated Hospital of Ji'nan University,Guangzhou 510630,China)

机构地区：[1]广东医科大学附属医院临床研究中心/科研部,广东省湛江市524001 [2]广东医科大学附属医院肾病内科,广东省湛江市524001 [3]西安市儿童医院药剂科,陕西省西安市710003 [4]青海卫生职业技术学院临床医学系,青海省西宁市810000 [5]广东医科大学附属医院呼吸与危重医学科,广东省湛江市524001 [6]暨南大学附属第一医院临床研究部,广东省广州市510630

出　　处：《实用心脑肺血管病杂志》2020年第2期13-17,共5页Practical Journal of Cardiac Cerebral Pneumal and Vascular Disease

基　　金：广东省医学科研基金项目(A2018162);广东省自然科学基金项目(2015A030313827)。

摘　　要：背景我国新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情防控仍处于关键时期,而判断疫情未来流行趋势是制定下一阶段防控措施的关键所在。目的通过计算粤西地区及各地级市COVID-19的基本再生数(R0)而预测粤西地区疫情发展趋势。方法依据广东省卫生健康委员会截止2020年2月18日24时的官方数据构建传染病动力学SIR模型,计算现阶段粤西地区及各地级市COVID-19的R0,并采用Holt双参数指数平滑模型预测其发展趋势。结果疫情初期粤西地区及各地级市COVID-19的R0最大,随后呈下降趋势;根据拟合结果发现,Holt双参数指数平滑模型对粤西地区及各地级市COVID-19 R0的预测值与观察值的相关性较强,可见该模型预测较准确;Holt双参数指数平滑模型预测粤西地区及各地级市COVID-19疫情可能在2月底迎来“拐点”并走向消亡。结论Holt双参数指数平滑模型对粤西地区及各地级市COVID-19 R0的预测较准确,并预测在现有高效防控措施下,粤西地区及各地级市COVID-19疫情正在好转,有望在2月底出现“拐点”。Background China is still in a critical period for preventing and controlling the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),thus determining the future epidemic trend of COVID-19 is the key to make the prevention and control measures for the next stage.Objective To forecast the future epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Western Guangdong through estimating the basic reproduction number(R0)of COVID-19 in Western Guangdong and other prefecture-level cities.Methods Susceptible-Infected-Recovered(SIR)model was constructed to calculate R0 of COVID-19 in Western Guangdong and other prefecture-level cities according to the official data from Guangdong Health Commission up to February 18,2020,and Holt two-parameter exponential smoothing model was used to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in the future.Results The largest R0 of COVID-19 was observed at the initial stage of the epidemic in Western Guangdong and other prefecture-level cities,and then showed a continuously declining trend;the correlation between the observed value and the predicted value of R0 in predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19 was significantly strong in Western Guangdong and other prefecture-level cities according to the fitting results,which verified that Holt two-parameter exponential smoothing model was relatively accurate;Holt two-parameter exponential smoothing model forecasted that,“inflection point”of the epidemic of COVID-19 may occur at the end of February and begin to disappear in Western Guangdong and other prefecture-level cities.Conclusion Holt twoparameter exponential smoothing model is relatively accurate in predicting the R0 of COVID-19 in Western Guangdong and other prefecture-level cities,the epidemic of COVID-19 has been improved and is expected to reach an“inflection point”at the end of February based on the current effective prevention and control measures in Western Guangdong and other prefecture-level cities.

关 键 词：肺炎 病毒性 新型冠状病毒肺炎 SIR模型 基本再生数 Holt双参数指数平滑模型 

分 类 号：R563.19[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181.8[医药卫生—内科学]