产业地理与贸易决策——理解中美贸易战的微观逻辑  

Industrial Geography and Trade Policy Decision-making:Understanding the Micro Logic of China-U.S.Trade War

作　　者：李巍[1,2] 赵莉 Li Wei;Zhao Li(the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China;the Center for American Studies Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学美国研究中心

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2020年第2期87-122,159,共37页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：田野担任负责人的国家社会科学基金重大专项“全球化发展趋势与逆全球化思潮应对研究”(项目批准号:18VZL015)的成果之一。

摘　　要：2018年开始,美国对华发起规模空前的贸易战,具体内容主要包括“关税战”和“技术战”两个方面。贸易战在美国国内引发了明显的利益分化,利益受损方及其在政治体系中的代表力量成为特朗普政府与中国达成贸易协议以在某种程度上减弱贸易战烈度甚至结束贸易战的主要动力。由于美国的产业呈现高度的地理集聚特征,在中美贸易战中利益受到损失的产业最终会通过它们所在选区的政治代言人来表达自身的利益诉求,因此,理解美国产业地理政治的基本特征是理解中美贸易战进程中两国变换采取攻守策略的逻辑基础。作者认为,以产业集中分布为特征的产业地理和以选区为中心的政治地理是理解美国社会利益和政策偏好向联邦政府传导的两把“钥匙”,它们共同构成了塑造联邦政府对华贸易政策的微观利益基础和核心动力机制。由于受损者比获益者更有动力站出来表达利益诉求以影响政府决策,作者在实证部分集中关注美国对华货物出口行业的产业地理政治,分析中美贸易战中美国国内潜在的反对力量,进而为有针对性地制定对美反制措施提出政策建议。Since 2018,the U.S.has launched an unprecedented“trade war”against China,which includes two main aspects:“tariff war”and“technology war”.The trade war has caused an obvious differentiation of interests in the U.S.,and the damaged parties and their representation in the political system have become the main driving force for the Trump administration to rush to reach a trade agreement with China in order to reduce the intensity of the trade war to some extent or even end it.Because of the high degree of geographic agglomeration of American industries,industries that have suffered losses in the China-U.S.trade war will eventually express their interest claims through the political spokesmen in their constituencies.Therefore,understanding the basic characteristics of American industrial geopolitics is the logical basis for understanding the transformation of offensive and defensive strategies between China and the U.S.in the trade war.This paper holds that the industrial geography characterized by industry cluster and the political geography focused on electoral districts constitute two“keys”to understand the transmission of American social interests and policy preferences to the federal government,which together form the micro interest foundation and core motivation mechanism for shaping U.S.federal trade policy towards China.Since the sufferers are more motivated than the beneficiaries to express their interest claims and influence government decision-making,the empirical part of this paper will focus on the industrial geopolitics of the U.S.

关 键 词：产业地理 政治地理 中美贸易战 美国贸易政策 产业集聚 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]