中国农业碳排放的空间分异与动态演进--基于空间和非参数估计方法的实证研究  

Spatial differentiation and dynamic evolution of agricultural carbon emission in China——Empirical research based on spatial and non-parametric estimation methods

作　　者：章胜勇[1] 尹朝静 贺亚亚 肖小勇[1] ZHANG Sheng-yong;YIN Chao-jing;HE Ya-ya;XIAO Xiao-yong(College of Economics&Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;College of Economics&Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;Economics&Management School of Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434023,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715 [3]长江大学经济与管理学院,湖北荆州434023

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2020年第3期1356-1363,共8页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71903162);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(18XJC790018);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助(2662018YJ002)。

摘　　要：为研究农业碳排放的空间分布与动态演进规律,运用1993-2017年中国大陆29个省份的面板数据,在分省测算农业碳排放量和农业碳排放强度的基础上,将空间和非参数估计方法相结合,考察了中国农业碳排放的空间分异及其动态演进.结果表明:中国农业碳排放量呈“中心-外围”模式分布,且表现出向“外围”扩散的趋势;碳排放强度呈逐渐下降的趋势,表现为西高东低的阶梯状分布特征;碳排放的地区间差距不断缩小,农业碳排放的增长分布由“二主一小”向“一主”的格局转变,与此同时,中国农业碳排放还表现出由“两极”向“多极”转变的分布格局.In order to study the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution trend of agricultural carbon emission,the research measured agricultural carbon emission and calculated agricultural carbon emission intensity of 29 provinces in China over the period 1993-2017,and finally investigated the spatial differentiation and dynamic evolution process of agricultural carbon emission using spatial and non-parametric estimation methods.The results showed that China’s agricultural carbon emission presented the“center-periphery”pattern distribution and a diffusion trend to“periphery”.China’s agricultural carbon emission intensity showed a gradual decline trend,presenting a stepwise pattern distribution of west high and east low.The regional disparities of agricultural carbon emission emerged downtrend in China.The distribution of agricultural carbon emission has changed from“two mains and one minor”to“one main”.At the same time,the regional distribution pattern of agricultural carbon emission in China has changed from“bipolar”to“multi-polar”。

关 键 词：农业碳排放 动态演进 Kernel密度 条件密度 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]