基于博弈论和证据理论的桥梁加固方案优选研究  

Optimum selection of bridge reinforcement scheme based on game theory and evidence theory

作　　者：孔令楠 郝伟[1] KONG Lingnan;HAO Wei(School of Civil Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学土木工程学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2020年第3期556-562,共7页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：长江学者和创新团队发展计划滚动资助项目(IRT-15R29)。

摘　　要：为了更加合理地选择桥梁加固方案,处理方案优选过程中的不确定信息以及避免主观偏好性对决策的影响,提出基于博弈论和D-S证据理论相结合的加固优选方法。采用基于博弈论的组合赋权,确定科学合理的综合权重,结合西北干寒地区桥梁病害,以待评方案为辨识框架,根据加固效果目标,选取效果可靠性、经济合理性、施工技术可行性等3个2级指标,14个3级指标作为证据体,利用灰色关联法确定各证据体的确定信度,通过D-S证据理论融合规则,由信度函数值排序得到方案排序。结合西北地区某桥梁加固实例,研究结果表明:该模型在桥梁加固方案优选应用中有效性显著,比选结果可靠合理,大大提高了决策的准确性和方案间的区分性。In order to select the bridge reinforcement scheme more reasonably,deal with the uncertain information in the optimization process and avoid the influence of subjective preference on decision-making,a reinforcement optimization method based on the combination of game theory and D-S evidence theory is proposed.Combination weighting based on game theory is adopted to determine scientific and reasonable comprehensive weights.Combining with bridge diseases in dry and cold regions of Northwest China,the scheme to be evaluated is taken as identification framework.According to the goal of reinforcement effect,three secondary indicators,namely,effect reliability,economic rationality,feasibility of construction technology,are selected,and 14 third-level indicators are taken as evidence bodies.The grey correlation method is used to determine the reliability of each evidence body.The D-S evidence theory is used to fuse the rules.Finally,the reliability function is used to rank the schemes.Combining with a bridge reinforcement example in Northwest China,the results show that the model is effective in the optimization of bridge reinforcement schemes,and the results are reliable and reasonable,which greatly improves the accuracy of decision-making and the distinction between schemes.

关 键 词：桥梁加固 博弈论 D-S证据理论 方案优选 

分 类 号：U445.72[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]