1953-2010年中国10~24岁青少年全死因死亡率趋势和地区差异分析  

Secular trends and geographic disparities of all-cause mortality among Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years,between 1953 and 2010

作　　者：罗冬梅 闫晓晋 雷园婷 胡佩瑾[1] 张京舒 宋逸[1] 马军[1] Luo Dongmei;Yan Xiaojin;Lei Yuanting;Hu Peijin;Zhang Jingshu;Song Yi;Ma Jun(School of Public Health and Institute of Child and Adolescent Health,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学公共卫生学院/北京大学儿童青少年卫生研究所,100191

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2020年第2期184-189,共6页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(19YJA890022);中国教育学会教育科研"体育与卫生"专项(17TY0131001ZA)。

摘　　要：目的分析1953-2010年中国10~24岁青少年全死因死亡率的趋势和地区差异。方法利用1953-2010年六次全国人口普查数据,计算中国10~24岁青少年全死因死亡率及其年变化率。将各地区人均国内生产总值作为社会经济水平指标,计算青少年死亡的Wagstaff标准化集中指数。结果1953-2010年,中国青少年死亡率总体表现为男性高于女性,20~24岁组高于15~19和10~14岁组,西部高于东部。中国10~24岁青少年男性全死因死亡率由1953-1964年的554.6/10万下降至2010年的55.7/10万,女性由488.4/10万下降至26.7/10万,女性下降百分比(94.5%)高于男性(90.0%)。1981-2010年青少年男性死亡率年均下降率最大的为北京(4.4%),最小的为青海(0.1%);女性最大的为湖北(6.4%),最小的为青海(0.8%);死亡率较高的省份年均下降率较小。1990、2000和2010年男性青少年死亡集中指数分别为-0.07(95%CI:-0.11^-0.03)、-0.13(95%CI:-0.18^-0.08)和-0.16(95%CI:-0.22^-0.10),女性分别为-0.07(95%CI:-0.13^-0.02)、-0.18(95%CI:-0.24^-0.12)和-0.18(95%CI:-0.26^-0.09)。男、女性在1990、2000和2010年的集中指数比较差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论近半个世纪以来,中国青少年总体死亡率大幅下降,但下降幅度存在性别差异和地区差异。Objective To analyze the secular trends and geographic disparities of all-cause mortality among Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years over the period of 1953-2010.Methods Data were extracted from the Chinese National Census in 1953-2010.We calculated the all-cause mortality and annualized rates of the changes.Using the provincial gross domestic product(GDP)per capita as an indicator of regional socio-economic development level,we calculated the Wagstaff normal concentration indices for adolescent mortality.Results Over the period of 1953-2010,the general patterns of Chinese adolescent mortality appeared higher in males than those in females,higher in the 20-24-year-old than those in the 15-19 year-old and in the 10-14 year-old groups,higher in adolescents from the western than those in the eastern regions.The mortality of adolescents decreased from 554.6/100000 in 1953-1964 to 55.7/100000 in 2010 in males and decreased from 488.4/100000 to 26.7/100000 in females,respectively.The percentage of decrease for females(94.5%)was higher than that for males(90.0%).In 1981-2010,the highest annualized rate of decline for males was seen in Beijing(4.4%),with the lowest seen in Qinghai(0.1%).For girls,Hubei showed the highest annualized rate of decline(6.4%)while Qinghai the lowest(0.8%).Provinces that with higher mortality tended to have lower annualized rate of decline.The concentration indices for boys were-0.07(95%CI:-0.11--0.03),-0.13(95%CI:-0.18--0.08),and-0.16(95%CI:-0.22--0.10)in 1990,2000,and 2010,respectively,and were-0.07(95%CI:-0.13--0.02),-0.18(95%CI:-0.24--0.12),and-0.18(95%CI:-0.26--0.09)respectively in girls.The indices among 1990,2000,and 2010 did not show statistically significantly differences,both for boys and girls(P>0.05).Conclusions Over the half century,the mortality of Chinese adolescents showed dramatic decreasing trend.However,in terms of death rates,gender and geographic disparities were consistently seen in the adolescents.

关 键 词：全死因死亡 青少年 长期趋势 地区差异 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]