服装销售预测方法研究进展  

Research Progress of Garment Sales Forecasting Methods

作　　者：周小溪 徐行[1] 孟剑飞[1] 苏旭中[2] Zhou Xiaoxi;Xu Hang;Meng Jianfei;Su Xuzhong(School of Art and Design,Wuxi Institute of Technology,Wuxi,Jiangsu 214121,China;College of Textile and Clothing,Jiangnan University,Wuxi,Jiangsu 214122,China)

机构地区：[1]无锡职业技术学院艺术与设计学院,江苏无锡214121 [2]江南大学纺织服装学院,江苏无锡214122

出　　处：《针织工业》2020年第3期68-72,共5页Knitting Industries

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(18YJCZH272);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目(2017SJB0861);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20170169);无锡市哲学社会科学招标课题(WXSK19-C-08);无锡职业技术学院博士科研基金项目(BS2017-03)。

摘　　要：在分析服装销售预测影响因素的基础上,综述服装销售预测模型的研究进展,并结合模型特征对比不同预测方法的优缺点,同时指出服装销售预测研究趋势与方向。将服装销售预测影响因素归纳为4点,包括周期性因素、季节性因素、分类方案及其他解释变量,提出产品特征与预测方法的关联方案,阐释影响服装销售的解释变量。从统计预测方法、人工智能预测方法及混合模型角度,分类阐述不同预测方法的工作原理及预测效果,重点介绍混合模型的最新应用及预测优势。基于服装销售预测研究趋势,根据研究进展与现存问题,提出服装销售预测研究的发展方向。This paper summarized the research progress of garment sales forecasting models on the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of garment sales forecasting. The advantages and disadvantages of different forecasting methods were compared combining model features, and the trend and direction of garment sales forecast research in the future were pointed out. The influencing factors of garment sales forecast were summarized into four points, including cyclical factors, seasonal factors, classification schemes and other explanatory variables. The related scheme between product characteristics and forecasting methods was proposed and the explanatory variables that affect garment sales were refined. From the perspective of statistical forecasting method, artificial intelligence forecasting method and hybrid model, the working principle and prediction effects of different forecasting methods were classified and the latest application and prediction advantages of hybrid model were introduced. Based on the research trend of garment sales forecasting, the development direction of the forecasting research was put forward according to the research progress and existing problems.

关 键 词：服装销售 预测方法 预测模型 人工智能 混合模型 

分 类 号：TS941.8[轻工技术与工程—服装设计与工程]