考虑风电预测误差与系统安全域的风电装机规划多目标优化方法  

MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION OF WIND POWER PLANNING CONSIDERING WIND POWER PREDICTIVE ENCODING AND SYSTEM SECURITY DOMAIN

作　　者：赵传[1] 戴朝华[1] 付洋 袁爽 陈维荣[1] Zhao Chuan;Dai Chaohua;Fu Yang;Yuan Shuang;Chen Weirong(School of Electric Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学电气工程学院,成都610031

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2020年第2期110-117,共8页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51307144)。

摘　　要：为引导有序有效的风电装机规划,在提高系统风电渗透率的同时保证含风系统的安全性,提出一种考虑风电预测误差与系统安全域的风电装机规划多目标优化方法。基于BP神经网络与非参数核密度法获取风功率点预测曲线与不同置信度下的风电预测波动区间。考虑风电经济社会效益与大规模风电并入后系统的负调峰能力,根据所得风功率点预测曲线,建立风电装机规划多目标模型。采用归一化法线约束法计算多目标模型Pareto前沿,并结合风电预测波动区间得到多种不同的风电装机规划方案。以某省电网实际数据进行仿真分析,以算例结果验证该文方法的可行性,为风电规划人员提供切合实际的决策方案。In order to guide valid wind power planning,this paper propose a multi-objective optimization of wind power planning,to ensure the security and enlarge wind permeability at the same time. The point estimate and fluctuant rang of wind power forecasting is got by BP neural net and non-parametric point estimation. The multi-objective wind power planning model is set up by considering economy-social benefit of wind power and peak load regulation. Then the Pareto front is figured out by using normalized normal constraint,and the final recommend plans are acquired based on different fluctuant range of wind power forecasting. The method of wind power planning is applied to the state grid,and the simulation results verify the feasibility of this method.

关 键 词：风电规划 风电预测误差 多目标优化 经济社会效益 负调峰能力 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]