天文、气象环境因子与散射比关系的建模分析  

ANALYSIS ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DIFFUSE IRRADIATION RATIO AND ASTRONOMICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS

作　　者：李芬 刘迪 闫全全[2] 陈正洪 程兴宏[4] 赵晋斌 Li Fen;Liu Di;Yan Quanquan;Chen Zhenghong;Cheng Xinghong;Zhao Jinbin(School of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China;Maintenance Company of SMEPC,Shanghai 200063,China;Meteorological Service Center of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430074,China;State Key Lab of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力学院电气工程学院,上海200090 [2]上海市电力公司检修公司,上海200063 [3]湖北省气象服务中心,武汉430074 [4]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2020年第2期203-209,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(51307105);上海绿色能源并网工程技术研究中心(13DZ2251900);上海市经济和信息委员会专项资金(沪CXY-2016-012)。

摘　　要：统计收集2010年和2011年北京地区逐时太阳辐射资料,比较多种小时模型在当地条件下的适用性并进行本地化修正,重点探讨天文因子和气象因子对直散分离模型的影响程度,提出一种新的天气类型划分方法,研究同一类天气状况下气象因子的含量特征,分别建立适合的数学模型。结果表明:Erbs模型预测北京地区的小时散射比效果最优;随着太阳太阳高度角的增加,散射比实测值与L1模型预测值的差值由负变正;细化天气类型后,新模型的预测效果明显提高,实用性较强。The hourly solar radiation data of Beijing in the past 2010-2011 years are collected. The applicability of multiple hour diffuse irradiation ratio models under local conditions is compared and localized corrections are made. This paper focuses on the influence of astronomical factors and meteorological environmental factors on the diffuse irradiation ratio models. A new method for weather type classification is proposed. The characteristics of meteorological factors under the same weather conditions are studied,and the appropriate mathematical models are established respectively. The results show that:Erbs model most accurately reproduces in diffuse irradiation ratio of Beijing;As the solar altitude angle increases,the difference between the measured values and the predicted values of the L1 model on diffuse irradiation ratio changes from negative to positive;After reclassification of weather types,the performance of the new model is obviously improved and more practical.

关 键 词：太阳辐射 散射比 太阳高度角 天气类型 LMBP神经网络 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]