基于SIR模型的中国当前新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的分析  

Analysis of the epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia in China based on the Susceptible-Infected-Removed model

作　　者：吴家园 赖天文 潘振宇[3] 李筱 刘华锋 吕军 Wu Jiayuan;Lai Tianwen;Pan Zhenyu;Li Xiao;Liu Huafeng;Lyu Jun(Department of Clinical Research,The Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong University,Zhanjiang 524001,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]广东医科大学附属医院临床研究中心/科研部,湛江524001 [2]广东医科大学附属医院呼吸与危重医学科,湛江524001 [3]西安市儿童医院药剂科,西安710003 [4]青海卫生职业技术学院临床医学系,西宁810000 [5]广东医科大学附属医院肾病内科,湛江524001 [6]暨南大学附属第一医院临床研究部,广州510630

出　　处：《中国循证心血管医学杂志》2020年第3期281-284,共4页Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Cardiovascular Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(81873404);广东省自然科学基金项目(2015A030313827)。

摘　　要：估算中国现阶段新型冠状病毒肺炎(novel coronavirus pneumonia,NCP)疫情的基本再生数R0,预测疫情的未来发展趋势,对制定下一阶段防控措施具有重要意义。本研究依据国家卫生健康委员会截至2020年2月19日24时公布的疫情数据,采用传染病动力学SIR模型,对现阶段我国NCP疫情的基本再生数R0进行估计,并采用指数平滑法来预测基本再生数R0的未来趋势。在现有的高效防控措施下,全国NCP疫情正逐渐好转,但湖北省的防疫形势仍比较严峻。继续保持目前的防控手段不松懈,对控制疫情的发展非常关键。同时,调动更多的资源支援疫情重灾区湖北省,有利于集中力量扑灭疫情,防止疫情的进一步蔓延。Estimating the basic reproduction number(R0)of novel coronavirus pneumonia(NCP)in China and forecasting its future trend is of great significance to formulate the prevention and control measures at the next stage.Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model was constructed to calculate the R0 of NCP in China according to the official data from National Health Commission up to February 18,2020.Exponential smoothing method was also used to predict the trend of the R0 in the future.Under the existing effective prevention and control measures,the NCP epidemic in China was gradually improving,but the situation in Hubei Province was still serious.Maintaining the current measures is crucial to controlling the development of the epidemic.At the same time,mobilizing more resources to support the hardest-hit Hubei Province will help concentrate efforts to fight the epidemic and prevent its further spread.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 基本再生数 SIR模型 指数平滑法 

分 类 号：R543.1[医药卫生—心血管疾病]