住房价格与生育推迟——来自CGSS微观数据的证据  

Housing Prices and Fertility Postponement:Evidence from the CGSS Micro Data

作　　者：胡佩 王洪卫[1] Hu Pei;Wang Hongwei(School of Public Economics and Management,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2020年第4期79-93,共15页Journal of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：生育推迟是我国生育率下降的重要原因之一,将房价和居民生育时间置于同一研究框架来研究有助于探索房价在家庭微观资源配置上的作用,从而有助于采取有效措施抑制房价的不合理上涨,并达到调整人口数量和结构的目的。但既有关于房价和生育的文献多数是从宏观角度研究房价上涨对生育率的作用效果,少数从微观角度出发的研究也只是从住房选择和房屋数量的角度来研究房价上涨对家庭生育决策的作用机制,尚未对房价对生育时间的作用机制进行探讨和实证分析。文章通过建立家庭生育效用理论模型,并利用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)微观数据探讨房价上涨对家庭初次生育时间的影响。研究结果发现,房价显著推迟了家庭初次生育的时间:(1)房价上涨改变了家庭预算约束,房价上升1%,家庭初次生育时间约推迟1.05年;(2)房价主要对中档收入家庭的初次生育时间产生了较大影响,而对低档收入和高档收入家庭的影响并不显著;(3)房价对拥有住房的家庭并没有产生显著的收入效应,对拥有2套及以上住房家庭的影响并不显著,但明显推迟了1套房家庭的初次生育时间;(4)高房价对东部地区家庭的初次生育时间决策有显著影响,但对中西部地区的影响在统计上并不显著。Fertility postponement plays an important role in the decline of China’s fertility rate. Putting housing prices and timing of birth into the same research framework will help us to explore the role of housing prices in the micro-resource allocation of families,so as to take effective measures to curb the unreasonable rise of housing prices and achieve the purpose of adjusting the population size and structure. However,most of the existing literature on housing prices and fertility studies the effect of the housing price rise on the fertility rate from a macro perspective. A few studies from the micro perspective also only deal with the influence of housing choice and the number of houses on family fertility decision-making,but have not analyzed the mechanism of housing prices on the birth time. This paper discusses the influence of the rising housing price on families’ timing of first birth by establishing a theoretical model of family fertility utility and using the micro data of China General Social Survey(CGSS). The research results show that the housing price significantly delays the time it takes for families to have their first child:(1)The housing price rise changes the family budget constraint,that is,the housing price rises by 1%,the first birth time of families is delayed about 1.05 years;(2)The housing price mainly has a great influence on the birth time of middle income families,but has no significant influence on low income families and high income families;(3)For families with 1 suite,the birth time is obviously delayed,but the housing price has no significant impact on families with 2 suites or more;(4)The high housing price has a significant impact on the decision-making of family birth time in eastern provinces and cities,but its impact on central and western provinces and cities is not statistically significant.The research conclusions of this paper has obvious policy implications: Under the current situation that the annual decline of the fertility rate seriously restricts the economic and

关 键 词：生育推迟 住房价格 初次生育时间 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学] F062.9