基于经验贝叶斯方法的交叉口交通安全措施评价  

Evaluation of safety strategies at intersections based on the Empirical Bavesian Method

作　　者：金治富 JIN Zhifu(School of Traffic Management,People’s Public Security University of China,Beijing102623,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学交通管理学院,北京102623

出　　处：《汽车与安全》2020年第1期60-68,共9页Auto & Safety

摘　　要：经验贝叶斯方法利用交通事故历史纪录以及交通事故预测的加权平均,直接处理了交通事故在研究期间的“均值回归”问题。经验贝叶斯方法作为对交叉口交通安全措施的效力进行估计的主流方法,作者介绍了近些年来美国在运用经验贝叶斯方法的成功经验,概略地归纳了交叉口交通安全措施,详尽阐述了经验贝叶斯方法的步骤,强调了在运用经验贝叶斯方法过程中的几个关键问题,最后对经验贝叶斯方法在我国的运用前景做了展望。The empirical Bayesian method takes advantage of a weighted average of the observed accident count and the predicted accident frequency,and thus directly addresses the“regression to the mean”problem of traffic accidents during a study period.The empirical Bayesian method is acted as a predominant method to estimate effects of safety strategies at intersections,the author introduced successful practices of using the empirical Bayesian method in the USA in recent years,outlined safety strategies at intersections,elaborated on the empirical Bayesian procedure,emphasized several key problems in applying the empirical Bayesian method,and finally looked toward the future application of the empirical Bayesian method in China.

关 键 词：经验贝叶斯方法 交叉口 交通安全措施 安全性能函数 

分 类 号：U492.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]