基于GM(1,1)与灰色关联度的概率犹豫模糊信息应急决策方法  

Emergency Decision-making Method of Probabilistic Hesitant Fuzzy Information Based on GM(1,1)and Grey Relational Degree

作　　者：吴健 刘小弟 孙超勇 汪忠志 Wu Jian;Liu Xiaodi;Sun Chaoyong;Wang Zhongzhi(School of Mathematical Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Ma’anshan Anhui 243002,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学数理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032

出　　处：《统计与决策》2020年第2期164-168,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71601002,11571142);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(16YJC630077);安徽省高校优秀青年人才支持计划重点项目(gxyqZD2018033);安徽省教育厅自然科学基金资助项目(KJ2017A851);安徽工业大学研究生创新基金资助项目(2017113)。

摘　　要：针对属性值为概率犹豫模糊元的应急决策问题,文章提出基于GM(1,1)与灰色关联度的应急决策方法。首先,依据当前各时段决策信息,基于GM(1,1)模型预测下一时刻决策信息。其次,基于犹豫度提出新型概率犹豫模糊距离公式,并建立概率犹豫模糊信息的灰色关联分析模型;最后,计算各方案与理想方案的灰色关联度,确定最优应急方案,并通过实例验证所提方法的可行性与合理性。For the emergency decision-making where the attribute value is probabilistic hesitant fuzzy element,this paper proposes an emergency decision-making method based on GM(1,1)model and grey relational degree.Firstly,based on the current decision information for each time period,the paper uses the GM(1,1)model to predict the decision information at the next time.Secondly,based on the degree of hesitancy,the paper proposes a new probabilistic hesitant fuzzy distance formula,and establishes a grey relational analysis model of probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information.Finally,the grey correlation degree between each scheme and the ideal scheme is calculated to determine the optimal emergency scheme.And the feasibility and rationality of the proposed method are verified by use of an example.

关 键 词：应急决策 概率犹豫模糊集 GM(1 1)模型 灰色关联度 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]