信贷政策调整和房地产价格的动态关系--基于VEC模型的分析  

Research on Dynamic Relation of Bank Credit and Housing Prices

作　　者：王桂琴 翁登朝 WANG Gui-qin;WENG Deng-chao(Schools of Economic,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《安徽行政学院学报》2020年第2期40-47,共8页Journal of Anhui Academy of Governance

摘　　要：文章从理论角度分析了银行信贷同房产价格间的关系和作用机制,并在此基础上利用2010年1月-2019年6月全国房产价格月度数据建立VEC模型进行实证研究。结果表明,银行信贷和房产价格具有双向因果关系:房价波动对信贷波动具有显著影响,而信贷波动对房价波动影响相对有限。文章认为房价波动通过短期信贷、抵押物价值和银行资本金三种渠道来影响信贷供给。因此,政府在调整信贷政策时需要考虑房价波动的影响。Based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship and mechanism between bank credit and housing price, this paper uses the monthly data of housing price from January 2010 to June 2019 to build VEC model for empirical test. The empirical results show that there is a two-way causal relationship between bank credit and housing price: housing price fluctuation has a significant impact on credit fluctuation, while credit fluctuation has a relatively limited impact on housing price fluctuation. Analysis shows that the fluctuation of housing price affects the credit supply through three channels: short-term credit, collateral value and bank capital. Therefore, it is advised that governments pay attention to housing price when making credit policy.

关 键 词：信贷波动 房价波动 VEC模型 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]