透视大尺度综合自然灾害风险评估的主要进展和展望  

Perspective on the Main Progress and Prospect of Large-scale Integrated Natural Disaster Risk Assessment

作　　者：孔锋 KONG Feng(School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Center for Crisis Management Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Center for Social Risk Assessment in China,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [2]清华大学应急管理研究基地,北京100084 [3]清华大学中国社会风险评估研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《灾害学》2020年第2期148-153,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：北京市社科基金研究基地项目(19JDGLA008,19JDGLB026);国家自然科学基金项目(41801064,71790611);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2019T120114,2019M650756);国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1509003)。

摘　　要：首先从多灾种风险评价入手,分析多灾种概念,区别广义和狭义多灾种风险评价的特征,并对多灾种风险评估的关键进行总结。然后,系统梳理了国内外5类典型的大尺度综合自然灾害风险评估的实践,并对其综合风险评估的核心过程和方法进行评价,分别是联合国开发计划署的灾害风险指数(Disaster Risk Index)、全球风险热点地区研究计划(The Hotspots Project)、世界风险报告(World Risk Report)、世界风险管理指数(Index for Risk Management)、世界自然灾害风险地图集(World Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk)。最后,对狭义和广义层面上的大尺度综合自然灾害风险评估进行总结和展望。研究结果对于当前灾害风险科学领域关于大尺度综合自然灾害风险评估的全面认识具有参考意义。Starting with the multi-hazard risk assessment, the concept of multi-hazard is analyzed, the characteristics of multi-hazard risk assessment in broad sense and narrow sense is distinguishea, and the key of multi-hazard risk assessment is evaluated.Then, we systematically reviews the practice of five typical large-scale comprehensive natural disaster risk assessment at home and abroad, and evaluates its core processes and methods, namely, the disaster risk index of the United Nations Development Programme, the Hotspots Project, the World Risk Report, the Index for Risk Management and the World Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk.Finally, the large-scale comprehensive natural disaster risk assessment in the narrow and broad sense are summarized and prospected.This study has reference significance for the comprehensive understanding of large-scale comprehensive natural disaster risk assessment in the field of disaster risk science.

关 键 词：综合自然灾害风险 全球变化 多灾种 广义与狭义 大尺度 风险评估 灾害复杂性 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] F742[经济管理—国际贸易]